Today: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Frequent showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.
Saturday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 85 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 74 near the shore to 46 to 53 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Saturday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs around 85 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy to locally windy easterly trades are here to stay, potentially through early next week as high pressure remains positioned to the north. The best chance for showers will favor the typical windward and mauka locations overnight through the early morning hours each day as pockets of moisture move through. Trades will gradually ease around the midweek time frame as a cold front passes to the north.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the gusty easterly trades holding through early next week as strong high pressure remains anchored to the north. The upper low and surface trough that are supporting the thunderstorm activity a few hundred miles west of Kauai this morning will continue to drift westward and away from the area through the weekend. Mostly stable and dry conditions will be the result, with the best chance for showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Peak wind speeds in the typically windier locations will hover around the wind advisory threshold of 30 mph over the next couple of days.
For the extended period (Tuesday night-Friday), guidance remains in decent agreement and depicts the ridge weakening as an upper trough and its attendant cold front pass to the north. If this materializes, the gradient will weaken and allow the trades to relax beginning around Wednesday, then enough for a land and sea breeze regime to become established by Thursday. Although confidence in the details remain low this far out in time, the tail end of the aforementioned front passing to the north is projected to hangup north of the state through this time. This pattern transition would result in mostly dry conditions prevailing, except for afternoon showers that manage to develop over leeward areas or where sea breezes form.
Aviation
High pressure to the north will maintain locally strong trade winds into the weekend. Clouds and showers will be focused over the windward slopes with this pattern, leading to some brief MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
The locally strong trades continue to produce mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains of all islands. As a result AIRMET Tango remains in place, and is expected to continue through the weekend.
Marine
High pressure north of the state will keep strong to near Gale force trade winds blowing through at least Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for all coastal waters through 6 PM Saturday. This SCA will likely need to be extended for a large chunk of the marine area through the weekend and potentially through early next week. A front approaching from the northwest may ease the trade winds around the middle of next week.
The current long-period south swell will gradually decline over the next few days, however a small reinforcement arriving today will help keep south shore surf elevated into early next week. Surf should drop below the summertime average along south facing shores Tuesday through Thursday.
The current small northwest swell will continue to fade out today, with minimal surf then expected through the middle of next week. A new small medium period northwest swell could give north shore surf a slight boost Thursday.
East shore surf should remain elevated and near seasonal levels through early next week due to the strong trades over and upstream of the islands. A small decline in east shore surf is possible Wednesday and Thursday if the trades ease up as indicated by the latest model guidance.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Lanai Mauka, Kahoolawe, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Big Island Interior, Lanai Windward, Lanai Leeward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Windward Haleakala, South Haleakala, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters,
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