Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kona

Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 35 mph increasing to 10 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Windy. Partly sunny with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 70 to 76 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 35 mph increasing to 10 to 35 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 30 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. West winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers early in the evening, then isolated showers in the late evening and overnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Today: Sunny and windy. Highs around 82 near the shore to 63 to 69 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Windy. Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Gusts up to 50 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. West winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A front across the central islands will sweep eastward through tonight, bringing showers and windy conditions to the state. Winds will ease with drier and cooler conditions filtering into the islands Thursday through the weekend. Warmer weather will return early next week.

Discussion

A 100 mile wide band of broken to overcast low clouds, marking a frontal boundary, lies across Maui County this morning and is moving rapidly eastward. Radar shows the main shower band has moved east of Oahu at this hour. Additional showers within convergent prefrontal flow lie across Maui County, the Big Island, and surrounding waters.
West to southwest winds will gradually strengthen this morning and remain quite strong through this evening. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire state through midnight tonight, with gusty downslope winds in excess of 50 mph likely over the windward areas northeast of the mountains. The unusual wind direction and saturated soils will increase the potential for impacts like falling trees or landslides. On the summits of the Big Island, a High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 PM Sunday. On Haleakala summit, a High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 AM Thursday. Expect showery weather with frontal passage across the central islands through today. Showery weather will likely continue over the Big Island through tonight. Showers will mainly focus across leeward areas and diminish behind the front.
Winds will ease to moderate levels Thursday and become light Friday through early next week as a weak ridge slides eastward over the island chain. Drier conditions will encompass the entire state Thursday through Monday, allowing for noticeably cooler conditions. Dewpoints are expected drop into the 50s. Maximum high temperatures will struggle to reach 80 degrees, and lows will bottom out in the upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday through Saturday.

Aviation

A cold front currently near Maui county will continue its eastward progression through today and will supply the eastern end of the Island chain with widespread MVFR conditions. Some showers and clouds will continue behind the front for the western islands and gradually decrease through the day as cooler and drier air moves in. Winds will remain breezy to strong out of the west to southwest today.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo low level moderate turbulence along northeast sides of all islands due to the strong southwest winds.
AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for kauai, Oahu, and the south through west facing areas of Maui, Molokai, and Lanai.

Marine

A cold front is currently over the Kaiwi Channel early this morning. As the front continues down the rest of the island chain today, southwest to west winds will increase, driven mainly by the front's parent low, which will pass less than 500 nm north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through tonight. Westerly winds will gradually ease Thursday and Friday, though seas will likely remain above the 10 foot SCA threshold into Friday for most areas due to a very large northwest swell. Gentle to locally moderate westerly winds are forecast for this weekend.
A very large northwest swell (310-320 degrees) will build through the day today, peak tonight, then slowly decline Thursday and Friday. The source storm will continue to advance southeastward at a very low latitude, with its captured fetch likely generating a swell in excess of 20 ft during the peak. Surf will exceed High Surf Warning levels along most north and west facing shores, including leeward Big Island, by this evening. In addition, the combination of large wind waves from the west and a mix of medium and longer period swell energy could lead to overwash of some coastal infrastructure and beach erosion, mainly this evening through Thursday morning along exposed north and west facing shores. The swell will decline and shift out of the north- northwest Friday through the weekend.
Minimal trade wind swell is expected this week, though there is some potential for localized wave wrap along east facing shores exposed to the large northwest swell late today into Friday. Rough surf may briefly increase along south facing shores as the front moves down the island chain through today.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Wind Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, Kahoolawe and lower elevations of Maui and the Big Island.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Haleakala Summit.
High Surf Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM HST Thursday for Kona, Kohala.
High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov