Today: Cloudy. Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Cloudy and windy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 77. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to 49 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 77. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Cloudy and windy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 77. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to 49 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 61 to 77. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Cloudy. Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Tonight: Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms. Lows around 64 near the shore to around 50 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Wednesday: Cloudy and breezy. Intermittent showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 77 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Windy. Sunny with isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 67 near the shore to 46 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Sunny with isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A strong high pressure system located far north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep windy trade winds in the forecast into Thursday. An upper level disturbance will keep showers over windward and mountain areas through Friday with brief shower activity over leeward areas of each island. The highest rainfall trends are expected over East Maui and the windward slopes of the Big Island as an unstable upper low lingers just east of Hilo. Wind speeds may trend lower into the moderate to locally breezy range from Friday to Saturday as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. A cold front will sweep from west to east across the island chain producing widespread showers with south to west winds on Monday.
Discussion
Water vapor satellite imagery highlights a narrow upper level trough over the islands with an unstable upper low anchoring just east of the state. Isolated thunderstorms are developing around this low pressure system and will drift into windward Maui and the Big Island later today through Wednesday. Expect periods of wet weather affecting all island into Saturday. A strong 1038 MB high pressure system remains far north of the state, producing strong and gusty trade winds across the Hawaii region through Thursday. Upper air weather balloon soundings at 2 AM HST (12Z) from Hilo and Lihue show trade wind temperature inversion heights ranging from 7,000 to 10,000 feet this morning.
Strong easterly surface winds converging over island mountains will combine forces with instability under the upper level trough producing periods of showers across the windward and mountain areas. Trade wind temperature inversion heights will remain in the 7,000 to 10,000 foot range into Saturday keeping wet weather trends in the forecast for all islands. The high pressure center far north of the islands will slowly weaken over the next few days with decreasing wind trends into the moderate to locally breezy range from Friday into Saturday, with winds becoming light and variable on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. However, this high will remain strong enough to produce windy trade winds into Thursday with wind advisories over land, and small craft advisories to gale warnings over windier coastal waters. A Wind Advisory remains in effect through Wednesday afternoon for the windier areas of most islands.
An upper level low will continue to deepen, and dig in just east of the Big Island through Wednesday. An upper level short wave trough rotating around this system will enhance shower activity over all islands through the morning hours. The highest rainfall amounts over the next few days will likely fall over windward slopes of Maui and the Big Island, as these islands are closer to the unstable cold core of this upper low. Brief periods of icy conditions may reach the Maui and Big Island summits around and above the 10,000 foot elevation level during the overnight hours through Wednesday as temperatures hover at or below freezing.
In the long range forecast for the upcoming weekend, wind speeds will decrease and becoming light and variable on Sunday as a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest. Shower activity will also trend lower over the smaller islands with continued higher rainfall activity over East Maui and the windward Big Island into the weekend. Both the American (GFS) and the European (ECMWF) extended range guidance shows a cold front sweeping widespread rain with southerly winds spreading from west to east across the island chain on Monday. Stay tuned for updates in this extended range forecast as this weather pattern will evolve over time.
Aviation
Strong high pressure north of the islands will keep strong and gusty trade winds in place during the next couple days. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but a few will reach leeward communities at times. Some MVFR cigs/vsbys can be expected in the passing showers, with showers most prevalent over windward slopes and coasts, particularly over the eastern end of the state.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration over windward sections of most islands. This AIRMET will likely remain in place through the morning hours, with some improvement possible over windward sections of Kauai and Oahu this afternoon.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate to isolated severe low level turbulence over and downwind of the terrain of all islands. AIRMET Tango is also in effect for strong surface winds across the entire state.
Marine
Rough conditions out across the waters will continue into the second half of the week as strong high pressure (1038 mb) remains positioned to the north. Overnight satellite data showed 25-35 kt winds with seas hovering in the 10-15 ft range, which line up well with buoy observations at the PacIOOS Mokapu station and a drifter buoy east of Hilo this morning. Guidance supports this and depicts a large belt of strong northeast to east trades over and upstream of the state continuing. Gales will continue through midweek over the windier waters and channels of Maui County and the Big Island. For the extended, a pattern transition is likely this weekend as a cold front approaches, which means a break in the strong winds/seas.
Surf along east facing shores will build today, with heights surging toward the warning threshold of 15 ft (faces) tonight through Wednesday due to the aforementioned winds over and upstream of the state. A downward trend is expected Friday through the upcoming weekend as the ridge weakens and winds ease.
Surf along north facing shores will remain well below the seasonal average each day through next weekend. Satellite data showed a large swath of gales aimed at the area down the 310 degree directional band associated with a system tracking eastward toward the Date Line. This supports a small west-northwest swell arriving Friday, then lingering into the weekend.
Surf along south facing shores will remain near the seasonal average each day, with mainly wind swell wrapping into exposed areas.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for most Hawaiian Islands.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for east facing shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for most Hawaiian coastal waters.
Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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