Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 73 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 68 to 73 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 83. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 68 to 83. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 75 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 75 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the east 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 69 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 60 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 69 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
A weak high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep lighter trade winds in the forecast through Thursday. Afternoon sea breezes will develop over the terrain sheltered western slopes of each island. A low level trough moving through the state will increase rainfall coverage through Wednesday. More typical drier summer trade wind weather will start from Thursday onward as the low level trough departs the pattern to the west and the ridge builds back into the region on Friday.
Discussion
Extensive clouds are spreading out across the Hawaiian Islands as shown on this mornings GOES satellite imagery. Local radar continues to show scattered to numerous showers developing across the state. These clouds and showers are due to a low level trough passing westward through the Hawaiian Islands. The upper air balloon soundings from 2 AM HST this morning show inversion heights hovering around 8,000 to 9,000 feet. This higher than normal inversion height will support deeper cloud development and scattered to numerous shower activity through Wednesday favoring the overnight to early morning hours.
The subtropical ridge north of the islands remains in a weakened state due to a long wave trough passing slowly through the central North Pacific basin. Trade winds will remain lighter through Thursday due to this weaker high pressure ridge. Local scale sea breezes will develop each day over terrain sheltered western sections of each island. Clouds and passing showers will tend to favor the windward and mountain areas with some of the stronger showers passing through leeward zones. However in this less stable hybrid wind pattern expect converging trade winds and sea breezes will produce some afternoon leeward shower activity.
On Friday we transition back to a more dominant trade wind weather pattern as the long wave trough weakens north of the islands and the subtropical ridge builds back in over the region. These moderate to breezy trades will last into at least the first half of next week. Brief passing showers will typically favor windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours.
Aviation
Weak trade wind flow will continue to carry bands of light showers off the Pacific towards mainly north and east facing slopes and coasts. A weak surface trough drifting east to west across the islands will further stimulate shower activity.
AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for north and east facing slopes of the Maui, Molokai, and Oahu, as well as windward Big Island north of Volcano. Conditions are expected to improve after sunrise. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail except for isolated MVFR conditions in passing showers.
For leeward Big Island, light sea breezes will return in the afternoon. Mostly clear skies in the morning will be replaced by VFR cloudiness in the late afternoon and persist through the evening hours.
Marine
No significant changes to the marine and surf forecast with the morning package. A ridge to the north and a weak low level trough near the islands will maintain light to locally moderate trades through Friday. As the low level feature moves west and dissipates the surface ridge will lift northward and strengthen, allowing the winds to increase over the weekend. Winds are expected to stay below Small Craft Advisory through the week.
The current long period south swell will continue to lower gradually through Wednesday. A much smaller south swell is expected during the Thursday through Sunday time period. The current small mid period northwest swell is expected to peak today, then lower gradually Wednesday through Friday. Short period choppy surf along east facing shores will remain rather small through Friday with a slight uptick expected over the weekend as trade winds gradually strengthen.
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