Hilo

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 87 near the shore to 69 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to 52 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to 69 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist through Tuesday, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Trade winds will trend down briefly Wednesday through Thursday, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established. Breezy trade wind conditions will return by the weekend.

Discussion

Guidance depicts a stable trade wind pattern persisting through Tuesday night, with showers favoring windward and mauka locations overnight through the morning periods. Winds will begin to taper off Wednesday into Thursday as a broad surface trough associated with former Tropical Cyclone Estelle passes to the north. This surface trough combined with a modest increase in moisture and a broad upper low drifting south-southwestward into the area could lead to better shower coverage through the second half of the week (decent chance of showers over our dry leeward zones where sea breezes form Thursday/Friday afternoon). Easterly trades will return for the weekend, with showers shifting back to the typical windward slopes.

Aviation

High pressure far north northeast of Hawaii will help maintain moderate trades through the forecast period. Thus, scattered showers will mainly be limited to windward portions of the islands with isolated activity elsewhere. Expect brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility due to the low clouds and showers.
There are currently no AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist through Tuesday as high pressure remains centered far north-northeast of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is currently posted for the typically windy zones around Maui County and the Big Island. Winds should drop below the SCA threshold Wednesday through Friday as a weak surface trough passes by just north of the area.
A new small south swell has been arriving and will continue as the day progresses. This swell will then persist into Wednesday. A larger south swell is then expected to arrive Wednesday night and Thursday, with surf heights possibly reaching the low-end advisory level Friday and Saturday. Moderate trade winds over and upwind of the state will continue to produce short- period choppy surf along east facing shores, while north shores will remain nearly flat.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov