Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Cloudy with occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to 55 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Cloudy with occasional showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 50 to 57 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will persist through Thursday, then ease Friday into the weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward the mauka areas, mainly through the overnight and early morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. A return of breezy trades is expected early next week.

Discussion

Early morning satellite and radar data showed a decent sized area of patchy low clouds and showers moving through our windward areas. Although most of this activity will continue to focus over windward and mountain locations, some showers will make it into our dry leeward spots of the smaller islands through the morning hours today (trade wind inversion floating around 8000-9000 ft). Drier air lurking upstream should arrive later today, which will translate to a return of a typical summer pattern (dry) for the islands.
Trades are forecast to ease Friday into the weekend as the ridge weakens to the north – potentially enough for localized land/sea breezes to form in sheltered locations. Showers will be sparse, mostly focusing over windward and mountain locations overnight through the mornings as pockets of low-level moisture move through. Breezy trades are forecast to return early next week as the ridge strengthens to the north.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the TAF period, with showers concentrated mainly across windward sections and in channels between islands through tonight. Satellite data continues to show an area of lower/mid level clouds expanding in areal coverage across windward areas of the islands this morning, as a band of moisture from the east moves beneath a weak trade wind inversion. Current surface obs continue to show some MVRF cigs drifting across the islands this morning, associated with the cloud deck, however expect clouds to breakup some later this today as afternoon mixing develops. Overall, expect some MVFR cigs will continue across mainly windward areas, generating the continued potential need for AIRMET Sierra due to tempo mountain obscurations. Otherwise, expect mainly VFR conds across most TAF locations through tonight.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the state will keep moderate to fresh trade winds in place through Thursday. The trades will be locally strong over the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island at times, and a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for these areas through 6 PM today. The trades will ease a bit Friday through the weekend, then strengthen to fresh to strong levels early next week as a new high builds north of the island chain.
South shore surf will hold above the summertime average today, with a slow and gradual decline expected Thursday through Saturday. A series of new long-period south swells will elevated south shore surf above the summertime average again Sunday through the middle of next week.
North shore surf will remain flat through the next 7 days.
Steady trade wind swell will keep east shore surf below normal through the next 7 days. A small northeast swell will also move through the islands late Friday through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov