Hilo

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 50 to 55 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 66 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. A 20 percent chance of showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 66 to 73 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the west after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with a 20 percent chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light to moderate trades will give way to land and sea breezes in leeward and sheltered locations through this week. High stability and limited moisture will limit shower coverage and rainfall amounts during this time. Trades will potentially strengthen during the weekend.

Discussion

Land breezes have allowed skies to clear over most areas early this morning. Light to moderate trades are focusing very limited clouds over windward zones at press time with no meaningful shower activity evident on the local radar composite. High stability evident by the low inversion on this morning's soundings will favor continued dry conditions through today. Upstream, the CIMSS PWAT analysis confirms model depictions of a pool of slightly deeper moisture residing along the 150th meridian. This area of slightly decreased stability and greater low-level moisture will work through the forecast area late tonight into early Tuesday leading to a relative increase in windward showers Monday night followed by increased leeward clouds during peak heating Tuesday. Isolated afternoon showers will be possible but coverage and intensity will be limited.
Further upstream, the much drier airmass seen slowly advancing toward the islands from the east will become established over the forecast area Tuesday through the weekend. Through about Friday, light to moderate trades will allow the sea breeze to focus limited moisture over leeward and/or interior locales. Increased afternoon clouds and an isolated shower or two each afternoon will give way to overnight land breezes and clearing skies.

Aviation

High pressure to the north continues to bring a stable, locally moderate trade wind pattern to the islands. Clouds and showers will be focused on the windward sides of the islands, and could produce some MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Afternoon clouds and some showers are likely over the Big Island leeward slopes. No AIRMETs are in effect, but will be monitoring windward sides of the islands for possible mountain obscuration.

Marine

A high pressure ridge north of the region will keep gentle to moderate trade winds in the forecast through Friday. Wind speeds are currently forecast to remain just below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) thresholds over the windier eastern waters this week. The ridge will build north of the area starting on Friday night with trade winds increasing into the moderate to breezy range, reaching SCA thresholds over the windier eastern waters around Maui and Hawaii Counties on Saturday and Sunday.
A series of small, medium period south swells will keep small surf in place along south facing shores through Friday with a slight decreasing trend in south shore surf heights from Friday into Sunday. A small, medium period swell will keep north and west facing shore surf heights elevated into Tuesday with declining northwest swell energy from Wednesday through Friday. Eastern facing shores will see small wind wave chop during this period of weaker trades with increasing east shore surf heights through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov