Hilo

Today: Cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 64 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Cloudy with showers likely. Highs around 79 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to 50 to 57 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure sliding by to the north and northeast of the state will keep breezy trade winds in place through late next week, with the strongest trades expected today through Saturday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, but will occasionally reach leeward areas. An upper level low west of the state will bring considerable high cloud cover across the eastern half of the state into Saturday. A period of wet trades may move through Monday night and Tuesday as some old frontal remnants swing through the island chain. A return to typical trade wind weather is expected to resume from mid to late next week.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a 1030 mb high is centered around 1100 miles north of Honolulu and is driving breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds producing mostly cloudy conditions across most of the state. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving through windward areas, with a few of these showers reaching leeward communities at times. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind and cloud cover trends.
High pressure well to the north of the islands will slide eastward and strengthen today, reaching 1035 mb in the vicinity of 35N145W tonight and Saturday. This high will weaken Sunday and Sunday night, while a front approaches and stalls out several hundred miles northwest of the state. A new strong 1035+ mb high will then build southward well to the north and northeast of the islands through much of next week, while the stalled front gradually weakens into a trough and begins to shift westward. All this said, breezy trade winds are expected to hold in place through the next 7 days, with locally windy conditions expected through Saturday night. A slight easing of the trades is expected Sunday through much of next week, but breezy conditions should generally prevail.
As for the remaining weather details, considerable mid and high cloud cover will linger over the islands though Saturday, bringing periods of considerable cloudiness, particularly over the eastern half of the state as well as windward areas over the western isles. The high clouds should scour out by Sunday, bringing more typical sunny weather back to the island chain. Otherwise, a fairly typical trade wind shower pattern is expected across the islands, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas and a stray shower reaching leeward areas from time to time. Lowering inversion heights should lead to a decrease in showers beginning tonight with drier than normal trade wind weather prevailing through Monday. A band of moisture associated with an old front appears to swing through the state Monday night and Tuesday, bringing a period of wetter trades, followed by a return of typical trade wind weather through late next week.
A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Big Island summits through 10 AM Friday, due to light snow accumulations and slippery road conditions.

Aviation

Surface high pressure to the north of the state will help generate breezy easterly trades through at least this afternoon. Enhanced moisture in the lower levels will allow for the development of scattered showers along the windward portions of the islands. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility may occur with any moderate to heavier showers. Isolated activity expected elsewhere.
Overcast mid/upper level cloud cover will continue to stream southwest to northeast over mainly areas east of Oahu through the forecast period.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for terrain above 2500 feet over the Big Island and windward portions of Maui.
AIRMET Tango for tempo moderate turbulence remains in effect below 7000 feet over and immediately south through west of all mountains.

Marine

Strong easterly trade winds associated with high pressure passing to the north are here to stay into the weekend. These winds combined with rough seas hovering at or near the 10 ft advisory level supports the Small Craft Advisory continuing for all waters through Saturday. The advisory may be scaled back to the typical windier waters by the end of the weekend through early next week.
Surf along south facing shores will hold near the advisory level today, then slowly ease over the weekend as the large south swell begins to move out. Nearshore/offshore buoy observations are still showing plenty of energy centered around the 14-16 second band this morning, which supports the long-duration south shore event continuing. In the longer range, no significant sources are expected from the south due to a large high pressure area setting up near our swell window around New Zealand.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through next week due to the strong trades in place locally and upstream of the islands.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will fade today as a late-season northwest swell moves out. Expect the summer- like trend up north to return over the weekend through next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM HST this morning for Big Island Summits.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov