Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 69 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs around 82 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations each day as pockets of moisture move through. Outside of a few afternoon showers over the Kona slopes, expect the dry conditions to continue for our leeward areas. Increasing moisture along with an upper disturbance moving into the area may lead to better shower coverage next weekend.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement through much of the week and shows moderate to breezy easterly trades holding. Clouds and showers will focus over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Rising upper heights and increasing stability are expected through midweek as a weak upper trough lifts away, which will lower the chances for heavy showers and limit accumulations. Expect the dry conditions to prevail for our leeward areas, where drought conditions exist.
For the extended period (next weekend), guidance continues to advertise a wetter pattern evolving as an upper trough drops south into the area. Although the best shower coverage will favor windward and mountain locations with the trades in place, some may spill over into leeward locations.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue to decrease today as a cold front approaches the islands from the northwest weakening the high pressure ridge north of the state. A weak upper low just northeast of Hilo will enhance shower activity, mainly in the overnight hours, over windward areas of each island. Brief periods of MVFR conditions are possible in showers along windward and mountain slopes through the early morning hours.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for Mountain Obscurations above 020 over north though east sections of Kauai and the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be cancelled later this morning as cloud coverage decreases.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through the weekend, with only minor variations in strength. Winds have dropped off slightly this morning, so the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled. Winds will likely increase back to SCA levels across the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island late this afternoon or this evening however, and may continue through much of the work week.
A series of small northwest swells will move through the islands during the next 7 days, keeping surf just above flat levels most days.
Fresh to strong trades over and upstream of the islands will keep elevated surf in place along east facing shores through Tuesday. East shore surf will then trend downward slightly Wednesday through Friday, then possibly trend back up over the weekend.
Several overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf elevated through Tuesday. Surf will then decrease to background levels Wednesday through Friday, before trending back up next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov