Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to 61 to 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 61 to 80. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 61 to 80. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs around 77 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 74 to 79 near the shore to 61 to 66 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to 63 to 68 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to 47 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through Thursday, delivering showery low clouds to windward and mauka areas, with a few showers spreading to leeward communities as well. High clouds will continue to stream overhead during the next several days as well, bringing considerable cloudiness at times. Unsettled and wet weather is expected Thursday night through New Years Day, with southeasterly winds bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall to the islands.
Discussion
Currently at the surface, a broad area of low pressure is located around 800 miles west-southwest of Kauai, with a large area of deep convection between the low and the Garden Isle. Meanwhile, a strong 1041 mb high centered around 1650 miles north of Honolulu remains the dominant weather feature locally, and continues to drive moderate to locally breezy trade winds across the island chain early this morning. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows scattered showers moving into windward areas, with mainly dry conditions in leeward communities. Main short term concerns revolve around rain chances and trade wind trends.
The broad area of low pressure west of the state will weaken into a trough as it shifts southward today, with the trough then remaining nearly stationary in the vicinity of 170W through Thursday. Meanwhile, strong high pressure will remain anchored to the distant north through Wednesday, before shifting slowly southeastward and gradually weakening Wednesday night and Thursday. The pressure gradient will remain rather tight during this time, with moderate to locally breezy trade winds expected.
Model solutions remain in relatively good agreement showing an area of low pressure developing along the surface trough in the vicinity of 170W Thursday night. The low is then expected to lift northward and eventually northwestward Friday through the weekend, while the strong high north of the state shifts southeastward and weakens. Winds are forecast to shift around to the southeast at moderate speeds Thursday night and Friday, with light to moderate south to southeast winds following over the weekend into into early next week.
As for the remaining weather details, we should see a fairly typical trade wind shower regime hold in place through Wednesday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. With moderate to breezy trades holding in place, showers will reach leeward communities at times as well. Scattered to broken convective debris clouds will continue to stream over the islands during the next several days, bringing periods of considerable cloudiness to the island chain.
Model solutions remain in good agreement showing weather conditions deteriorating heading into New Years Eve. Deeper moisture will begin to advect into the state from the east Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing an increase in coverage and intensity of the trade wind showers. With winds swinging around to the southeast Thursday night and New Years Eve, we should see a confluence of deep moisture advecting in from the east as well as lifting northward from the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The result appears to be an extended period of wet weather, with moderate to heavy rainfall impacting the island chain at times Thursday night through New Years Day. Considerable cloud cover looks likely during this time, with periods of snow possible for the Big Island summits as well. Forecast confidence diminishes Sunday through early next week, as there are indications that conditions could improve as well as signs that unsettled weather could continue. Given the uncertainty will follow a middle of the road solution until details become more clear.
Aviation
Breezy easterly flow will persist through the remainder of this morning. Thus, scattered showers will be focused mainly along the windward portions of the islands. Isolated activity expected elsewhere. These showers may bring brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility, but not expecting anything widespread.
AIRMET TANGO remains in effect below 8000 feet over and immediately south through west of mountains on all islands due to tempo moderate turbulence.
Marine
High pressure to the north the islands will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the coastal waters through Wednesday, with some weakening expected during the second half of the week. A developing surface low to the northwest of Kauai during the second half of the week will help to shift winds to a more southeasterly direction by the end of the week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most coastal waters and has been extended through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will trend down during the second half of the week, which will likely lead to scaling back of the SCA. The threat for thunderstorms will remain over the southwest offshore waters.
A west-northwest swell will continue today before fading tonight. Surf is expected to peak just below advisory levels for north and west facing shores of Kauai with this swell. The current east- northeast swell, combined with the strong east trades, will maintain rough and choppy surf along east facing shores, but is expected to remain just below advisory levels. A couple other northwest swells are expected to arrive Wednesday night and also Thursday night, but heights with these swells are currently expected to be about half of the swell expected tonight.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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