Today: Partly sunny. Scattered light showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated light showers. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated light showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 68 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered light showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 85 near the shore to 69 to 75 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through tonight, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trade winds will trend down Tuesday through midweek, potentially enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established. Rainfall accumulations should remain limited with the dry and stable conditions persisting through the first half of the week. Increasing moisture along with a return of moderate trades will be possible Wednesday night through Friday, which could lead to better windward shower coverage for parts of the state.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement through the start of the week and depicts the moderate to breezy easterly trades holding through tonight before trending down Tuesday through midweek as a weakness forms in the ridge to the north due to a passing front. Light showers will favor windward and mauka locations into Tuesday (mostly overnight and early mornings), with a transition to leeward areas through the afternoon periods Tuesday through midweek where localized sea breezes form. Rainfall accumulations, however, will be minimal due to the lack of available moisture in the area (PWs hovering below 1.25″).
A modest increase in moisture moving into the area from east to west combined with lowering upper heights as a weak upper low drifts southwestward near the eastern end of the state can’t be ruled out late Wednesday through Friday. The GFS solution is the wettest and depicts a decent sized area of PWs ranging from 1.5″ to 2″ moving over the Big Island and Maui County. If this materializes, windward shower coverage will trend up with moderate trades returning. The ECMWF solution, however, remains on the drier side, which lowers the forecast confidence through this extended period.
Aviation
Surface high about 950 nm NNE PHNL will move NE about 25 kt today. Trades will remain locally breezy today, and trend slightly lighter tonight. Predominantly VFR, but a small band of -SHRA embedded in the trades will bring some brief MVFR to a few windward spots this morning. Expecting the -SHRA to weaken and move on by midday.
SIGMET Victor remains in effect for moderate to occasionally severe turbulence between FL280 and FL400. There are mixed signals in the turbulence guidance about how fast this area weakens today, with the GFS keeping it around longer than the ECMWF. Will err on the side of caution and maintain the SIGMET for now.
Marine
A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the islands producing moderate to locally strong trade winds across the region. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typical windier waters near Maui County and the Big Island. Trade wind speeds for the Tuesday through Wednesday period show a slight weakening trend. Trade winds remain just below SCA levels from Thursday through Friday.
A northwest swell arriving late today will produce a slight bump for surf along north and west facing shores through Tuesday. A larger northwest swell will arrive on Wednesday, likely bringing advisory level surf along exposed north and west facing shores by Thanksgiving Day. This northwest swell energy will show decreasing trends from Friday to Saturday. Surf heights along east facing shores will remain small with nearly flat conditions along south facing shores of all islands.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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