Hilo

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 67 to 72 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 75 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 75 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 75 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 56 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 75 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 74 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 54 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Friday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds have returned and will continue into the holiday weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trades may ease late in the weekend through early next week as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Near-term guidance remains consistent and depicts a drying trend today as upper heights rise and the surface ridge builds to the north. Breezy trades combined with lowering dewpoints will result in pleasant conditions. Winds may near advisory levels in the typically windier locations of Maui County and the Big Island through the day Friday. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka locations, with the best coverage overnight though the morning periods as pockets of moisture move through. The high clouds that have filled in will linger over the western end of the state today, then shift west of the area tonight through Friday.
The long-term guidance depicts the pressure gradient loosening late in the weekend and into early next week as an upper low moves in and a weakness forms in the subtropical ridge. If this materializes, trades will become disrupted with another land and sea breeze pattern setting up over sheltered leeward areas.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue over the next few days. Cloud and shower activity will favor windward and mountain areas trending higher in coverage during the overnight and early morning hours. Brief MVFR conditions are possible with the showers. Also, high cirrus clouds will continue to move over the islands today.
No AIRMETs in effect and none are expected.

Marine

High pressure northeast of the state will assert more of an influence upon the region and ultimately strengthen local trade winds through Saturday. More areawide moderate to locally strong trades the next couple of days has prompted a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) through Saturday afternoon for the windier areas surrounding Maui County and south of the Big Island. Trades are expected to further strengthen Friday and impact more western waters. This could warrant an areal expansion of the SCA Friday.
A small, long period south swell filling in from today through Saturday will be reinforced by small, medium period south and short period southeast swells the next several days. These swells will maintain near seasonal south facing shore surf through the holiday weekend. A series of small, medium to slightly longer period south swells will arrive Labor Day and hold through most of next week. Strengthened trades over and upstream of the chain the next few days will boost the short period wind wave swell. This will pick up east facing shore surf by another foot or two into the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov