Hilo

Today: Showers likely, mainly before noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. North northeast wind 5 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Northwest wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Calm wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers before 7pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. North northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west southwest 5 to 8 mph in the morning.

Waimea

Today: Scattered showers before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 17 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Breezy, with a northeast wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kohala

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers, mainly before 11am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 12 to 17 mph decreasing to 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east wind 22 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Windy, with an east wind 24 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph.

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Puna

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 10 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. North wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Sunday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Breezy, with a north northwest wind 9 to 15 mph becoming northeast in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny, with a high near 85. Windy, with an east northeast wind 15 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 68. Breezy, with an east wind 17 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 84. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 14 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift further northeast of the state, lower trade wind speeds are forecast from Sunday through Friday. Shower activity will trend drier into Monday with isolated to scattered showers lingering over windward and mountain slopes. More unstable weather conditions may develop by Monday evening over the Big Island and Maui. Increasing showers will develop statewide from Tuesday through Thursday as a low level disturbance drifts through the region.

Discussion

The satellite picture this morning shows fairly stable clouds east of the islands. Expect periods of showers to continue along north and east sections of the Big Island and Maui this morning, otherwise less showers are built into the short range forecast. Local radar backs up this forecast with passing showers detected over windward areas of the Big Island and east Maui and isolated to scattered coverage elsewhere.
A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift northeastward away from the state this weekend. Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue on Saturday with a gradual weakening trend from Sunday into Monday. Moderate strength trade winds remain in the forecast from Monday through next Friday as a weaker ridge remains locked in place north of the region.
Shower trends will stay on the drier side from Sunday into Monday for most islands. However, the windward Big Island and east Maui may see an increase in shower activity by Monday night. A low level trough drifting westward across the islands, remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Jimena, will bring additional atmospheric instability and deeper tropical moisture into the state from Tuesday into Thursday. Muggy conditions with higher humidity levels are expected with scattered to numerous shower activity. The best coverage for showers in this trade wind regime will favor the windward and mountain areas, however even some leeward areas will see an up tick in shower activity during this time period. The arrival timing of these enhanced showers will vary a bit for each island.

Aviation

Breezy and mostly dry trade wind conditions will persist through the weekend. AIRMET Tango will likely remain in place for low- level mechanical turbulence downstream of the mountains through Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail for most areas. The exception will remain over the eastern end of the state where MVFR CIGS/VSBYs will continue through the morning hours today.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration over windward areas of the Big Island will remain in effect through the morning hours today. Sierra may be lifted later this morning for Maui and Molokai if conditions continue to improve.

Marine

High pressure north of the state will keep moderate to strong trades in place through the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect from the leeward Oahu waters eastward with the exception of the windward Big Island waters through 6 AM Sunday. The SCA for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island is now in effect through 6 AM Monday. The trades are forecast to ease into the light to moderate range much of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will hold near the summertime average through the weekend. East shore surf will then gradually lower to slightly below normal levels by the middle to latter part of next week.
Small background south swells will keep surf below seasonal levels through Monday. A new long period south swell is forecast to arrive Monday, with surf rising to near or above the summertime average Tuesday through late next week.
Expect nearly flat conditions along most north facing shores through Monday. A series of overlapping west-northwest swells are expected to give a boost to north shore surf Wednesday through next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM HST Sunday for Oahu Leeward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov