Hilo

Today: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. East wind 6 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Scattered showers, mainly after 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. Northeast wind around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Northeast wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Kona

Today: Isolated showers after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 79. West wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Isolated showers before 7am, then scattered showers after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Waimea

Today: Scattered showers, mainly before noon. Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. East northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Breezy, with an east wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Kohala

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with an east wind 18 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. Breezy, with an east wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 67. Breezy, with an east wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

South Big Island

Today: Sunny, with a high near 83. Windy, with an east wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tonight: Isolated showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 72. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 22 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: Isolated showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. Windy, with an east wind 21 to 24 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Puna

Today: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. East northeast wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Tonight: Scattered showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Northeast wind 11 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday: Scattered showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 75. Breezy, with a northeast wind 13 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny, with a high near 84. North wind around 6 mph.

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 66. East northeast wind around 7 mph.

Saturday: Isolated showers after noon. Sunny, with a high near 82. North northeast wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Lingering clouds and showers will primarily impact Kauai and Oahu today, with more typical trade wind weather over the remainder of the state. Breezy trade winds accompanied by more typical trade wind weather will be felt across the state this weekend and into early next week.

Discussion

Little change to the immediate forecast this morning. Satellite and radar shows the clouds and showers from the old front are starting to lift northward. This will shift the focus of those clouds and showers to Oahu and Kauai this morning, and more towards only Kauai this afternoon. High pressure to the north of the islands will keep trade winds at moderate levels today. The high is expected to strengthen some this weekend, which will result in an uptick in trades to breezy levels.
The overnight soundings showed precipitable water (PW) values near normal for June. Satellite derived PW shows higher than normal values over the central islands at 2 am in association with the moisture from the old front. A drier airmass is upstream of the Big Island. With the trades in place, expect the clouds and showers to be focused over windward locations, with a few showers reaching leeward areas.
There is good model agreement with the ECMWF and GFS that the high pressure system north of the islands will remain in place into early next week.

Aviation

A high pressure ridge north of the region will keep moderate to locally breezy trade winds in the forecast today. Bands of clouds and showers from an old frontal boundary are moving through the western islands. Scattered to numerous showers are expected mainly over windward and mountain areas with less shower activity over leeward areas. Periods of MVFR conditions remain in the forecast over windward and mountain areas from Kauai to Molokai. The trade winds will push these shower bands westward today with gradual drying trends from east to west.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscurations over Kauai, Oahu and Lanai. Mountain obscurations will likely decrease in coverage today as the cloud bands drift westward.
AIRMET Tango in effect for moderate low level turbulence South through West of island mountains from Kauai to Maui.

Marine

Moderate to strong trade winds will persist through early next week, and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island. A surface high far to the northwest will strengthen and drift to the northeast over the next couple days, then stall far north of the islands. Little change in winds are expected into early next week. The remnants of a front will linger around Kauai and Oahu this morning before moving west of the state.
A small bump to north shore surf is expected Saturday. South shore surf will slowly rise to near seasonal average over the weekend as a couple of small, long period south swells move through the islands. East shore surf will increase to near seasonal average as trades over and upstream of the state strengthen through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov