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Possible Tropical Cyclone Development for the Weekend

September 30, 2015, 1:13 AM HST
* Updated September 29, 6:18 PM
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Alerts

A Small Craft Advisory is posted for all island waters through 6 a.m. Wednesday. East winds up to 30 knots and seas up to 13 feet are expected. Inexperienced mariners should avoid navigating in these conditions.

**Click directly on the images below to make them larger. Charts include: Big Island high/low forecasted temperatures, projected winds, chance of cloud cover, projected localized weather conditions, vog/SO2 forecast and expected wave heights.**

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Looking Ahead

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Breezy winds will continue over the next few days. Expect showers to remain focused over windward areas, with a few isolated showers reaching leeward areas from time to time. Wet and windy weather could start this weekend and continue through early next week.

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By Friday, weather models are showing a disturbance digging northeast of the islands, with a possible tropical system forming to the southwest as well. The weather models are all showing some type of development but they differ on placement, strength and track at this time. Uncertainty is very high with regard to the precise impact on our weather. Based on the current models, moisture could increase significantly over the islands as early as Sunday afternoon, and linger into the first part of the week. As we’ve seen throughout hurricane season thus far, a lot can change so I’ll keep an eye on it and bring you the latest.

 

Today 

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Today we expect mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers for windward and mauka spots. The Kona side is forecast to be clear in the morning with building clouds and isolated showers in the afternoon. High temperatures from 86° to 91°. Breezy northeast winds are forecast from 15 to 20 mph.

UV index at 10 (“very high” exposure level)

 

Tonight

Northeast winds are expected in the evening from 15 to 20 mph. Low temperatures from 72° to 77°. Mostly cloudy skies are expected in the evening with scattered showers for windward areas and clearing skies in leeward spots.

 

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Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

Image: NOAA / NWS

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