UPDATE 8/5/15: Tropical Storm Guillermo
***Updated at 11:20 p.m. to include information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. advisory.***
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. advisory reports that Tropical Storm Guillermo is weakening east of Hawai’i as it moves towards the west-northwest.
As of the advisory, Guillermo was about 225 miles northeast of Hilo, moving west-northwest at 10 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds at 50 mph.
CPHC dropped the Tropical Storm Watch for the Big Island and Maui County on Wednesday at its 11 a.m. update.
***Updated at 5:30 p.m. to include information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory.***
Tropical Storm Guillermo remains on track to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands.
At 5 p.m., the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said that Tropical Storm Guillermo was located 225 miles northeast of Hilo and carrying maximum sustained winds of 50 miles per hour, a sharp decrease over the last six hours.
Forecasts show Tropical Storm Guillermo moving to the west-northwest at 10 miles per hour. At its current track, it is expected to pass 170 miles north of the Big Island by Thursday.
The main concern with Tropical Storm Guillermo is surf conditions, prompting the National Weather Service to extend the High Surf Warning for east facing shores until 6 p.m. Thursday. Large surf heights are still forecast to affect windward coasts.
***Updated at 3:15 p.m. to include information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. advisory.***
As of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. tropical weather outlook, Tropical Storm Guillermo was about 240 miles northeast of Hilo, moving west at 10 miles per hour.
***Updated at 12 p.m. to include information from the National Weather Service.***
The Flash Flood Watch for the Big Island has been canceled.
***Updated at 11:15 a.m. to include information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 11 a.m. advisory. ***
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center canceled the Tropical Storm Watch for the Big Island and Maui County in its 11 a.m. advisory. CPHC’s cancelation was made as forecasters say the storm is weakening and the probablity for wind impact has decreased.
Tropical Storm Guillermo continues its west-northwest path at 12 miles per hour. Forecasts suggest that the storm will continue on its current path for the next couple of days, as it resumes steady weakening Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Guillermo’s center has become exposed to strong vertical wind shear disrupting the eye of the store. Forecasters say the wind shear is likely to increase over the next 24 hours, leading to steady weakening as the warm core become further disrupted and tilted.
As of 11 a.m., the storm was 250 miles east-northeast of Hilo and is expected to pass the Big Island late Wednesday night about 160 miles to the north-northeast.
Maximum sustained winds are currently at 60 mph with higher gusts and a general trend of weakening is expected as the work week closes. Guillermo is forecast to become a tropical depression by Thursday night and a remnant low by Saturday.
CPHC says that tropical storm force winds can extend outward up to 185 miles.
A Flash Flood Watch and High Surf Warning remain in effect for the Big Island and Maui County.
***Updated at 8:10 a.m. to include information from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. advisory.***
As of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. advisory, Tropical Storm Guillermo was about 270 miles east-northeast of Hilo.
CPHC says Tropical Storm Guillermo’s low level center is becoming exposed as it continues to move towards the west-northwest.
Currently, Tropical Storm Guillermo is moving in a west direction at about nine miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph.
Over the next couple of days, forecasts predict that Tropical Storm Guillermo will continue on its current path and increase slightly in its forward speed. As the week continues, Tropical Storm Guillermo is expected to steadily weaken. CPHC says that by Thursday, Guillermo should weaken to a tropical depression.
Tropical Storm Guillermo is expected to pass the Big Island late Wednesday night about 160 miles to the north-northeast. The storm is expected to pass Maui on Thursday about 90 miles to the north-northeast.
Tropical storm force winds are expected to reach an area up to 185 miles from the center of Tropical Storm Guillermo, especially in the northern direction.
A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Big Island and Maui County. The watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the islands over the next 24 to 36 hours.
Also in effect for both the Big Island and Maui County is a Flash Flood Watch. The Big Island is currently under a high surf warning.
*** Original story posted at 5:18 a.m.***
Quite a bit of moisture associated with Guillermo has now reached the islands since late last night, bringing more showers to the area. Latest radar imagery indicates there are heavier showers in this moisture field, while the rain gage at Kapahi recorded almost a third of an inch of rain in fifteen minutes. Latest satellite imagery showed more band of clouds associated with Guillermo are heading towards the islands today. Trade winds are expected across the state, bringing showers mostly to windward areas.
Guillermo continues to slowly weaken this morning with maximum sustained winds at 60 mph with higher gusts. The system is moving WNW at 9 mph, and is expected to continue on this path over the next couple of days, with another slight increase in forward speed, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. The storm is now expected to weaken faster, becoming a tropical depression Thursday.
Guillermo is now expected to pass about 160 miles NNE of the Big Island late tonight.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles from the center, mainly to the north of the center, according to agency reports. The chance for tropical storm force winds is 3% in Hilo and 9% in Kahului, which has trended down slightly since the 2 a.m. forecast package.
The CPHC says tropical storm conditions are possible on the Big Island of Hawaiʻi and the islands within Maui County later today into Thursday. The current forecast calls for potential total rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches, with maximum amounts near 7 inches mainly in high terrain areas.
On the water, forecasters say swells associated with Guillermo will produce large surf along east facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
Guillermo is now 250 miles ENE of Hilo, 315 miles E of Kailua-Kona and 315 miles ENE of South Point. The Big Island is still under a Tropical Storm and Flash Flood Watch. A High Surf Warning have been issued as well.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH
This watch is in effect for Maui County and the Big Island and windward waters / channels surrounding these islands. A tropical storm watch means that sustained winds of 34kt or higher are possible, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Small craft should seek harbor. If you live on a boat, safely secure your craft and make plans to seek shelter on shore.
A tropical storm watch is issued when conditions are expected in the specified area of the watch within 48 hours. A watch is typically issued before the possible arrival of tropical storm force winds which make continuing outside preparations dangerous. This is the time for you to prepare.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
The watch is posted through 6:00 p.m. Thursday for abundant moisture from tropical storm Guillermo moving over the area. Excessive runoff may produce rock and mudslides in steep terrain. Fast-moving water may create life-threatening situations.
A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is very dangerous. Remember that it does not have to be raining heavily where you are for flash flooding to occur.
HIGH SURF WARNING
A High Surf Warning has been issued through 6:00 a.m. Thursday for east-facing shores. Wave heights of 10 to 15 foot faces are expected today and tonight. Expect ocean water occasionally sweeping across portions of beaches. Very strong breaking waves and strong longshore rip currents. Breaking waves may occasionally impact harbors making navigating the harbor channel dangerous.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center offers the following Preparedness Tips:
- It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track. Forecast movement, direction, and speed are only estimates. Even small errors in the forecast track can mean major differences in where the worst conditions will occur. Damaging effects can extend far from the center.
- For those under a watch, now is the time to prepare. Secure or bring indoors any loose outdoor objects like lawn furniture, childrens toys, hanging plants, barbecue grills, or any item that could become a destructive projectile in strong winds. Do not wait until it is too late.
- Stay calm and keep informed. Closely monitor NOAA weather radio or other local news outlets for official storm information. Listen for warnings or changes to the forecast.
- Be ready to evacuate if necessary. Heed the advice of local officials and comply with any orders that are issued. Persons living near the shore should be prepared to evacuate quickly should building surf threaten.
- Loose objects such as lawn furniture, garbage cans, and other items should be secured or stored indoors. Have supplies on hand and be ready for power outages. Evacuate if ordered by local officials.