Malika Dudley’s Big Island Forecast (10/30/14)

**A breakdown of expected conditions specific to the Big Island is presented below in graphical form. All graphics are provided by the National Weather Service in Honolulu.**

Alerts
The National Weather Service has issued a HIGH SURF ADVISORY for east shores of the Big Island until 6 a.m. Saturday, Nov. 1, 2014. Hazardous ocean conditions are expected due to a combo of north swell and increasing winds. Watch out for rip currents, dangerous shore break conditions and strong breaking waves.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY is posted for waters near South Point and the Alenuihaha channel until 6:00 a.m. Thursday. Winds of 20 to 25 knots are expected with rough seas from 6 to 12 feet. Inexperienced mariners are cautioned to avoid navigating these conditions.

Today
Partly cloudy skies are expected today. Leeward areas are forecasted to get light winds in the morning. A few isolated showers are expected before the sea breeze spurs the development of afternoon cloud cover and squeezes out some scattered showers for the Kona side. Windward spots could get scattered showers as well. High temperatures should fall in the range of 81° to 86° up to around 74° at 5000 feet. In general, trade winds should fall in the 15 – 20 mph range for Hawaii County. Along the Hamakua coast and above 5000 feet gusts could reach 35 mph.

Sunrise: 6:21 a.m.
Sunset: 5:47 p.m.
UV index at 7 (“high” exposure level)

Tonight
We expect mostly cloudy skies tonight with scattered showers in windward and mauka areas. The Kona side will be mostly cloudy to start then partly cloudy as some clouds get pushed out to sea by the land breeze. Low temperatures should fall in the range of 70° to 75° with lower temperatures expected at higher elevations. East winds are expected from 15 – 20 mph.

Moonrise: 12:30 p.m.
Moonset: 12:15 a.m.
Next Full Moon: Nov 6, 2014 at 12:23 p.m.
Next New Moon: Nov 22 at 2:33 a.m.

Halloween Night Forecast (will update tomorrow with the latest)
Leeward side: Mostly cloudy, 30% chance of scattered showers, winds SE at 10 mph
South Point / Pahala: Mostly cloudy, 20% chance of isolated showers, winds 15 – 20 mph, gusts to 35 mph
Windward Coast: Mostly cloudy, 50% chance of scattered showers, winds 10 – 15 mph, gusts to 30 mph
Kohala / Waikoloa: Mostly clear, winds 15 – 20 mph

Looking Ahead
The front that is expected to affect us today should gradually dissipate Friday through Saturday. Trade winds are forecasted to be breezy pushing showers into windward and mauka spots. The strongest winds could carry some showers into leeward areas as well. Heavier downpours are not out of the question at this point but because of the breezy winds, rainfall will not accumulate in one area for too long. Sunday trade winds are expected to gradually soften through early next week. Another cold front is expected midweek. Will keep an eye on it.

Surf & Seas
Hilo: Surf is expected in the waist to head high range with occasional plusses at the best exposures. Choppy.
Kona: Surf from ankle to waist high is forecasted. Breaks not exposed to the swell will see much smaller surf.
South: Waist to chest high wind waves are expected at the best exposures. Choppy conditions.

As expected, former hurricane ANA merged with a storm south of the Aleutians. This north-northwest swell (340-360°) should peak today. Another shot of surf energy is expected to fill in tonight into Friday, peaking in the afternoon at a couple feet overhead. The swell is expected to remain below advisory levels. A new northwest swell (305-325°) is expected by midweek.

A trade wind swell will build in as our trades strengthen. In tandem with the north swells mentioned above, this has prompted the high surf advisory for east facing shores.

Our current south-southwest swell (200-180°) is expected to hold today before fading out Friday and into the weekend. A reinforcing swell (200-185°) is expected over the weekend, peaking in the knee to waist high range Saturday into Sunday morning before fading out. After that swell subsides, surf goes quiet with not much on the horizon out of the South Pacific.

Keep in mind, surf heights are measured on the face of the wave from trough to crest. Heights vary from beach to beach, and at the same beach, from break to break.

Almanac for Hilo Airport
Maximum Temperature for today:
Normal 82°
Record 87° / Set in 1972

Minimum Temperature for today:
Normal 68°
Record 62° / Set in 1954