Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 55 to 61 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 69 to 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 68 to 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 65 to 86. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 60 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the northeast after midnight.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 55 to 61 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 71 to 76 near the shore to 54 to 60 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Wednesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 70 to 76 near the shore to 53 to 59 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the forecast period as showers focus primarily windward and mauka.

Discussion

High pressure far north of the area will drive moderate to breezy trade winds through this weekend and into next week. A mid level ridge will keep a strong temperature inversion of around 5,000 ft to 6,000 ft in place, keeping showers on the lighter side. An area of drier air with lower dewpoints can also be seen on CIMSS MIMIC Layer Precipitable water just upstream to the east-northeast of the islands. This drier air will help lower the relative humidity values through the remainder of the week and lower the shower chances. Showers will still be possible for windward and mountain areas, although coverage should be fairly limited and intensity will be light. An enhanced but shallow moisture field associated with benign troughing from a long-since dissipated tropical system will be on the doorstep in about a week and may bring an uptick in showers for windward and mauka zones.
Looking into the long range forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking a few disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific that could develop in the next several days to a week. Global models and google deepmind indicate an active week next week for Tropical Cyclone Development. It is too early to know if Hawaii will be impacted but we will be monitoring the tropics for notable developments.

Aviation

Mostly VFR conditions across the state with pockets of MVFR conditions windward due to lower CIGs. Additionally, a few -SHRA are also possible on windward and mauka slopes. Wind wise, flow pattern is moderate trade regime.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will persists a broad high pressure remains far north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect over typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf along south facing shores will remain below summer average through tonight as a small medium period south swell slowly fades and a small, long period south southwest swell fills in. A slightly larger, long period south swell will fill in Wednesday and peak Thursday into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat.

Fire weather

Fire weather will be elevated but is expected to remain below critical thresholds through the week due to winds remaining below criteria. KBDI likewise remains a bit low due to recent rainfall. Day to day variability during the next week will be modest as the governing pattern remains rather stagnant.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov