Research from 2022 Mauna Loa eruption helps predict, understand future eruptions

With more satellite data available from private and public sources, scientists will be able to make better predictions about lava flow during Mauna Loa’s next eruption.

When Mauna Loa erupted for the first time in 38 years on Nov. 27, 2022, scientists could not predict which direction the lava would flow or when the eruption would end. When the flow began traveling northeast to Daniel K. Inouye State Highway, lava was advancing at a rate of 0.08 miles per hour.

By Dec. 7, 2022, the lava was around 1.8 miles away from the highway, and the flow had slowed to less than 20 feet per hour. On Dec. 13, the eruption had officially ended.

On the evening of Nov. 28, the lava flow crossed the road leading to the Mauna Loa Observatory, disrupting power and access to the facility. If the lava had reached Daniel K. Inouye State Highway, it would have cut off a critical route that carries many residents from their homes on one side to their jobs on the other.

During the 13-day Mauna Loa eruption, Ian Flynn, research assistant professor in the Department of Geology and Environmental Science in the University of Pittsburgh’s Kenneth P. Dietrich School of Arts and Sciences, was working to map the lava flow using data from privately launched satellites in conjunction with traditional government satellites.

“The best way to keep people safe in the event of an eruption, however, is to know as soon as possible before lava begins running down hillsides,” Flynn said.

Combining public and private data helped Flynn decode how changes within Mauna Loa relate to its eruptions.

To predict the thickness of the lava flow, Flynn reached out to Dr. Shashank Bhushan, a colleague working at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center who had done similar work with glaciers.

“I reached out and asked, ‘Can we use this methodology that you apply to glaciers and adapt it to lava flows?’ He said, ‘I don’t know. Let’s try.’”

It did work, and it gave Flynn and collaborators another tool to understand the eruption.

To even better predict the outcome of an eruption, Flynn began working with Dr. Claudia Corradino, from the Italian National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology, in using a machine-learning algorithm to identify a thermal increase one month before the eruption.

While this signal that an eruption was coming was identified after the eruption ended, any new insights into how a volcano behaves prior to erupting add to scientists’ ability to predict when they’ll occur for the next eruption.

“Getting visible data helped us understand where it’s going,” Flynn said, but that data is two-dimensional. “Now we can also generate flow thickness and understand how much material is coming out.”

That information is key to understanding how the lava is cooling over time, which can help researchers more accurately analyze the lava’s composition. Depending on the environmental conditions, cooling rates should differ.

“Knowing how lava cools enables scientists to better constrain our models when we find active volcanoes on other planets,” Flynn said. “When we search for active lava flows on other planets, knowing how long it takes for lava to cool on Earth will help us to better understand what’s happening if we see a hot flow on Venus.”

Mauna Loa may be the most active volcano in the world, but others can be just as — if not more — threatening to people living nearby. As more data becomes available, Flynn and his colleagues learn more about the Mauna Loa eruption while also learning about the information they’ll need to know about other volcanoes.

There won’t likely be a one-size-fits-all solution to predicting eruptions for all volcanoes, but there may be a way to find a unique solution for predicting eruptions at individual sites.