Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 51 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming west up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 45 to 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northeast up to 10 mph after midnight.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph shifting to the south up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 74 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 59 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy and haze. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Windy and haze. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph becoming 10 to 25 mph after midnight.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 64 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 49 to 55 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Haze. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 83 near the shore to 63 to 70 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to 47 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

The high pressure system north of the islands will remain in place through Sunday with brief passing showers possible, favoring the windward and mountain areas. This weather pattern changes significantly from Monday to Tuesday as a cut off low moves into position several hundred miles northwest of Kauai. Southerly winds on the east side of this low will draw up unstable moisture from the deep tropics, increasing the threats of heavy rain, thunderstorms and flooding across the state.

Short term update

Typical trade wind weather will continue through Sunday. By Monday a cut off low approaches the Hawaii region from the northwest, causing the wind directions to veer more from the south. Southerly winds on the east side of this low will draw up unstable moisture from the deep tropics, increasing the threats of heavy rain, thunderstorms and flooding across the state. These heavier showers and thunderstorms will initially impact the western islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. From Tuesday night onward, these impacts may spread across the rest of the state.
Island by island impacts will be primarily based on the precise location of the surface low relative to the Hawaiian Islands. Smaller (mesoscale) unstable convective bands will drive the hour by hour trends, potentially leading to flash flooding impacts. A future Flood Watch may be issued at some point early next week for this event. These impacts are currently too far away for dialed in island by island threat forecasting.

Previous discussion

Issued at 319 PM HST Thu Mar 5 2026.
Dry and stable breezy ESE winds continue into early next week. Blocking of the flow by the larger islands will facilitate afternoon sea breeze development over the western end of the state that will favor interior clouds clouds and isolated showers each afternoon for the smaller islands. Developing land breezes bring clearing overnight.
Attention then turns to Monday night through the remainder of next week which may be particularly active. By late this week, the tail end of a cold front lifting into the Gulf of Alaska is modeled to settle immediately west of the islands as broad ESE low-level flow persists. Low pressure nestled within the left exit of digging Pacific jet will absorb this remnant frontal band and usher it east into the forecast area as early as Monday night, most likely in the vicinity of Kauai. Impressive dynamics aloft will develop the front vertically allowing heavy showers to organize as they increase in coverage and intensity. At the same time, deep southerly flow transports PWATs of at least 1.75″ into the forecast area deepening the warm cloud layer, providing additional moisture for heavy rain, and enveloping the forecast area in a broad corridor of weak isentropic ascent that will likely produce at least a few pockets of heavy rain well in advance of the front. Aggregate low pressure remains established NW of the state for the entirety of next week with multiple embedded shortwaves providing periods of stronger forcing as the frontal band slowly advances east. On this much, consensus is very strong among the global guidance. Clarity on timing for each island and magnitude of rainfall will come during the next few days as the event draws nearer and especially once it enters the hi-res window. Regardless, a long- lived flash flood threat is poised to manifest over part or all of the islands for essentially all of next week.

Aviation

Issued at 319 PM HST Thu Mar 5 2026.
East-southeast moderate surface winds will continue tonight and Friday. There will be areas of MVFR in low clouds and showers, mainly on east and south sections of Kauai and Oahu. VFR in most locations.
AIRMET Sierra currently in effect for E through S Kauai and Oahu, and this is expected to continue into tonight.

Marine

Issued at 319 PM HST Thu Mar 5 2026.
Fresh to locally strong east-southeast trade winds will continue tonight into Friday as high pressure remains centered far northeast of the main Hawaiian Islands. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through Friday evening for the typically windy channels and waters of Maui County and the Big Island. This general wind pattern is likely to hold through the weekend. A large low pressure system approaching from the west this weekend will stall northwest of the islands beginning early next week. Winds will veer more southerly in response to the low's cold front making a close approach, or even entering the northwest offshore waters, by mid-week. Locally strong southerly winds will be possible depending on how close the cold front gets to the islands.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will remain small as a series of small, long- to medium-period northwest swells reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. Forerunners of the next small northwest swell have been observed at northwest Hawaii buoy 51001 today, and should arrive in the islands this evening. This small northwest swell is expected to provide a small bump in surf along north and west-facing shores. It will be followed by another small northwest swell that will maintain the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm-force low currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another small west- northwest swell early next week.
Choppy east shore surf will remain near seasonal averages as east-southeasterly trade winds vary minimally over the next few days, with a chance for a slight increase over the weekend. Surf along east-facing shores will then decline early next week as winds veer more southerly.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small through the weekend, but is then expected to increase and become choppier with the shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small, long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

Big Island Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Big Island Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov