Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 69 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the southeast up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the southeast up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Windy. Sunny with isolated showers. Haze. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 58 to 68 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 71 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Gusts up to 25 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy east-southeast winds will persist through the weekend as a cold front stalls northwest of the state and high pressure remains anchored to the northeast. This pattern will favor showers along southeast- and east-facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, with sea breezes and downstream convergence bringing clouds and a few showers to leeward and interior areas. Strengthening southerly flow may draw deep tropical moisture over the islands next week, bringing an increasing chance for a wetter and more unsettled pattern.

Short term update

Issued at 825 PM HST Wed Mar 4 2026
The latest forecast remains on track, therefore requiring no major amendments. To maintain the latest trends, however, opted to amending the winds and temperatures through tomorrow night. Winds continue to gradually ease as the gradient between the high and the incoming low laxes. Overall low-level flow persists from the east-southeast through the remainder of the week. As a result, showers will favor southeast- and east-facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, as well as leeward and interior areas across the state as sea breezes develop within the lighter, semi-blocked flow, which the latest forecast does an excellent job depicting.

Prev discussion

Breezy trades veered to an east-southeast direction earlier today, a bit sooner than previously anticipated. Low-level flow is expected to remain east-southeast through the weekend as a cold front approaches and stalls northwest of the state, interacting with the strong surface high pressure system anchored to the northeast. In this pattern, showers will favor southeast- and east-facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, along with leeward and interior areas statewide as sea breezes develop within the lighter, somewhat blocked flow. Model guidance remains in good agreement through this period, keeping the front stalled just west of the islands while its parent low lifts farther northwest.
Looking ahead to next week, global models show a mid- to upper- level low rounding the base of a trough northwest of the state and spawning a surface low to the west-northwest. Strengthening southerly flow between this low and high pressure to our northeast is expected to draw deep tropical moisture (precipitable water values of 1.6 to 1.8 inches) over portions of, or possibly the entire, state beginning early to midweek. This moist southerly flow may persist through much of next week and, combined with instability associated with nearby upper-level disturbances, could support a wetter and more unsettled pattern with the potential for heavy rain and thunderstorms lasting into next weekend.
Model agreement has improved somewhat regarding the overall pattern evolution next week, and forecast confidence is gradually increasing. However, important details, including the exact placement of the deepest moisture and the strength of the southerly winds, are still coming into focus.

Aviation

Moderately breezy easterly trades are expected to continue tonight, then turn a little more southeasterly tomorrow. Isolated to scattered showers will occur mainly windward and mauka, with MVFR possible. Expect the usual uptick in coverage and intensity of showers overnight. Still, most sites will have VFR.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for turbulence below 8 kft along leeward sites of the islands due to the ongoing trade pattern. This is expected to remain in effect through the period.

Marine

Issued at 825 PM HST Wed Mar 4 2026
Trade winds have started to veer towards the east-southeast today due to the high shifting further east. Fresh to strong east to east-southeast winds will continue to persist through Thursday then slightly ease Thursday night into Friday as a front passes north of the islands. Fresh to strong east-southeast winds will return over the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most of the waters around the Big Island and Maui through Thursday, where winds will be strongest. A large low pressure system approaches from the west this weekend and lingers northwest of the islands starting early next week. Winds veer more southerly in response to the low's cold front making a close approach or even entering the northwest offshore waters by mid- week. Strong southerly winds, potentially gale force, will be possible depending on how close the low pressure system gets to the islands.
Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain small as a series of small west to northwest swells reach the Hawaiian Islands over the next week or so. The current small northwest swell will continue to decline through Thursday. A new small west-northwest swell will arrive to replace the first on Thursday, and peak Friday night, followed by another small northwest that maintains the small surf through the weekend. A compact storm- force low currently just off the coast of Japan will likely produce another small west-northwest swell early next week.
Choppy east shore surf did increase to seasonal averages today due to the strengthening east to east-southeast winds. Little change is expected along east facing shores over the next few days followed by a slight increase over the weekend. Surf along east facing shores should decline early next week as winds veer southerly. Surf along south facing shores will remain small through the weekend, but may increase and becoming increasingly choppy with the shift to a more southerly wind direction early next week. A small long-period south swell is also possible around Tuesday of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov