Hilo

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 43 to 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 71 near the shore to 42 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 68 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 76 near the shore to 66 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 68 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 76 near the shore to 66 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 58 near 3000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 64 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers in the evening, then scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the morning, then showers likely and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs around 77 near the shore to around 63 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to 46 to 51 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.

Saturday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 63 to 68 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Locally heavy rainfall possible in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to 45 to 51 above 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will continue for one more day, but will gradually ease by this evening. As a disturbance moves overhead today, expect increasing chances for heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms over the western end of the state, and the wet weather will continue into the weekend. Strengthening trades early next week will return a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern, followed by more stable conditions by mid to late week.

Short term update

Periods of heavy showers were observed over Kauai and Oahu this evening with 1 to 3 inches of rainfall observed in a three to six hour time period over portions of the Koolau Mountains on Oahu. A combination of a passing upper level trough will continue to set the state for an unstable atmosphere lingering into Saturday morning. This large scale instability will be enhanced by low level convergence bands enhancing the threat for flash flooding into the morning hours.

Prev discussion

Issued at 404 PM HST Fri Feb 20 2026
Water vapor imagery is showing a short-wave trough approaching the state this afternoon from the west, which should help produce showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western half of the state tonight. A Flood Watch remains in effect for Kauai and Niihau through tonight, and the latest HREF model agrees with the heaviest rainfall rates occurring during the evening and overnight hours. Unstable and showery conditions should persist on Saturday, but the greatest flooding risk should be tonight as the upper trough swings through Kauai.
Over on Oahu, we are seeing showers training along the Ko'olau Range this afternoon. Low level winds have weakened and veered toward the east-southeast and we are seeing a plume of moisture drifting towards Oahu from Molokai. Training showers will likely continue along the Ko'olau range through this evening, which will lead to rises along the streams and some minor flooding possible along low lying areas. For the most part, rainfall rates have been holding in the 0.5 to 1 inch per hour rate, but rainfall rates could increase this evening as instability increases from the approaching upper level trough. The upper level trough should bring an increase of showers and isolated thunderstorms late tonight into Saturday for Oahu.
For rest of the state, showers should be on the increase Saturday, with windward areas likely seeing the greatest shower coverage. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible, but if any thunderstorms do form, they will likely be brief and isolated. Some localized flooding impacts will be possible, especially windward areas. The summits of the Big Island could also see some snow showers Saturday afternoon, which may prompt a Winter Weather Advisory.
By Sunday, the main moisture axis should lift off to our north and while conditions aloft will still be unstable, we will lack the moisture on Sunday. So overall Sunday should start off fairly nice, with sea breezes developing during the day. Sea breezes should allow for some afternoon clouds and showers over interior and mountain areas. Any showers that do develop could be heavier than usual due to the instability aloft.
Beyond the weekend, model guidance suggests the main band of moisture staying north of the state through Monday. As high pressure builds north of the state Monday night into Tuesday, this band of moisture will ride in with the returning trade winds Tuesday into Tuesday night. By the second half of next week, mid- level ridging is expected to build overhead, supporting a more stable pattern with moderate to breezy trade winds.

Aviation

Issued at 404 PM HST Fri Feb 20 2026
Trade winds will weaken this evening and Saturday as the pressure gradient weakens and an upper level trough moves over the islands from the west. Showers are expected to increase in coverage from west to east tonight through Saturday. We expect localized MVFR and isolated IFR in the strongest showers.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration above 2 kft for north through southeast Oahu, east Maui, and north and east Big Island due to showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of continued breezy low level winds. Conditions are expected to improve as winds weaken tonight.

Marine

Fresh to locally strong trades will begin to ease over the weekend as a gale to the northwest lifts northward and away from the region. Winds will become light enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over the weekend. Seas will respond by gradually lowering, likely falling below the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory level by Saturday. In addition to the winds and seas, expect a wet pattern with isolated thunderstorms as an upper disturbance lingers in the area.
Surf along exposed east-facing shores will remain rough, with heights hovering around advisory levels today. A downward trend will follow over the weekend as winds diminish locally and upstream of the state.
Surf along exposed north- and east-facing shores will quickly build through the day Monday as a long-period north-northeast swell from a broad storm-force low evolves off the northwest Pacific coast this weekend. A large area of northerly gales between this system and a 1048 mb blocking high centered over the Aleutians will continue to expand southward through the weekend, with the head of the fetch reaching less than 1,000 nautical miles from the state. Heights will reach warning levels for exposed north- and east-facing shores by late Monday through Tuesday. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated by midweek, additional pulses from this same system will keep surf above advisory levels for east-facing shores through much of the week. This swell direction will bring surf into some typically protected areas such as Kua Bay, West Maui, and exposed shores of Lanai.
Other impacts from this north-northeast swell direction could include significant erosion along some coasts and accretion at other locations as sand shifts opposite the typical swell direction, particularly along north-facing shores. Additionally, overwash along vulnerable sections of coastline and roadways will be possible beginning Monday night during high tide cycles. Mariners can also anticipate harbor surges at Kahului and Hilo.
Surf along exposed west-facing shores will rise early next week as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a recent broad storm- force low over the far northwest Pacific.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Flood Watch until 6 AM HST Saturday for Niihau, Kauai and Oahu.
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Windward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov