Hilo

Rest Of Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 54 to 64 near the shore to 44 to 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers early in the morning, then numerous showers late in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 64 near the shore to 44 to 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy early in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Haze through the night. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to 42 to 48 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows 64 to 69 near the shore to 41 to 47 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph.

Waimea

Rest Of Tonight: Windy. Occasional showers early in the evening, then scattered showers early in the morning. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Tonight: Windy. Occasional showers early in the evening, then scattered showers early in the morning. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Windy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to 63 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 67 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Haze through the night. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny…windy and haze. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Windy and haze. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 15 to 30 mph.

Puna

Rest Of Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 54 to 64 near the shore to 44 to 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Occasional showers early in the morning, then numerous showers late in the morning. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 72 to 77 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 55 to 64 near the shore to 44 to 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 44 to 50 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 55 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and windy. Haze in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 62 to 67 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 35 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 43 to 48 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally windy trade wind pattern persists through the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will periodically deliver clouds and showers to windward and mauka reas with an uptick in shower activity possible this weekend.

Short term update

Issued at 824 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026
A band of showers extends from Windward Big Island to the nearshore waters off the coast of Kauai and Oahu at press time. These showers will work through the area during the next several hours bringing increased showers predominantly to windward and mauka zones. A very dry mid-level airmass beneath building mid/upper ridging will advect into the area in the wake of these showers bringing increased stability and deep layer subsidence. The lead edge of this airmass aloft has already nosed into western portions of the state where the 00z afternoon sounding out of Lihue indicated a rapid strengthening and lowering of the inversion. If anything, this will aid wind gust production as stability and subsidence spread over the state tonight through Tuesday.

Prev discussion

Issued at 334 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026
No changes to the forecast with the afternoon package. The high pressure north of the islands was analyzed as a 1040 mb high at 8am, in line with the expected GFS and ECMWF weakening trend. A few wind gages, mainly on Maui and the Big Island have been gusting over 40 mph. About half a dozen gages on each of Maui and the Big Island have had sustained winds in excess of 30 mph today.
As anticipated, the high far north of the islands will maintain the tight pressure gradient over the islands, resulting in breezy to locally windy conditions. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with this high continuing to sink southward and weaken overnight, however this is not expected to alter the resultant pressure gradient over the region, thus expecting the winds to hold fairly steady into tomorrow. The Wind Advisory remains in effect for portions of Oahu to the Big Island, with the strongest winds in the typical locations of higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains.
A cold front about 850 miles to the northwest of Kauai will continue to move to the east, and by tomorrow, may help to tighten the pressure gradient over the islands between the high and the front. This could cause an uptick in winds tomorrow and Wednesday, which could result in an expansion and extension of the Wind Advisory. Currently several of the high resolution models, include the FV3 and ARW, are depicting winds stronger than observations, which raises concerns about the peak of the winds that are forecast in those models. However most models are indicating winds around advisory levels through much of the week.
Radar shows isolated showers immediately upstream of the islands, with satellite showing some more showery bands further upstream. The southern end of the first of these bands is over the coastal waters to the east of the Big Island, and is likely to begin moving over the Big Island within the next couple of hours. These bands will be carried in on the trades, and keep passing showers focused over windward and mauka areas. However the stronger trade winds will carry some of these showers to the leeward areas of the smaller islands. Expect similar shower activity to continue through much of the week.
During the second half of the week, the GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with moisture being drawn northward to the east of the islands. This moisture then is expected to get carried in on the trade winds, which would increase shower activity for the upcoming weekend.

Aviation

Issued at 824 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026 Strong trade winds will prevail with winds beginning to veer east southeast by the end of the day Tuesday. The breezy trades will bring in a band of low clouds and showers, with windward sides favored and showers occasionally reaching leeward sides of the smaller islands. AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for windward sides of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island.
AIRMET Tango is also in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 7000 feet over leeward sides of the islands.

Marine

Issued at 334 PM HST Mon Feb 16 2026 A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to drift farther south through midweek. This closer proximity to the islands will keep strong and gusty trade winds in the regional forecast through at least Wednesday. As a result, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all of the main Hawaiian waters has been extended through Wednesday afternoon and will likely need to be extended further for at least portions of the coastal waters. A slight decrease in trade wind speeds may develop from Thursday into Friday as the high weakens briefly, before another strong high develops far north of the state this weekend.
Surf heights along east facing shorelines will remain solidly within High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria through Wednesday, driven primarily by a large and persistent fetch of fresh to strong trade winds upstream of the islands. The HSA has been extended through Tuesday night and an extension through Wednesday is looking likely as strong upstream trades are expected to persist.
Surf will remain small along north, west and south facing shores through Saturday, as no significant swell-producing systems are evident in the medium range forecast.
In the extended range forecast, forerunners from the next moderate to large, long period north (010-020 degree) swell appear to arrive by late Sunday night, building swiftly to advisory levels through next week Monday, and then slowly declining into the middle of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island East, Big Island North, Big Island Southeast, East Honolulu, Kauai East, Kauai South, Kipahulu, Koolau Windward, Maui Windward West, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Windward, Olomana, Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Big Island Interior, Big Island North, Big Island South, Big Island Southeast, Kahoolawe, Kohala, Koolau Leeward, Lanai Leeward, Lanai Mauka, Lanai South, Lanai Windward, Maui Central Valley North, Maui Central Valley South, Maui Windward West, Molokai North, Molokai Southeast, Molokai West, Molokai Windward, South Haleakala, Waianae Mountains, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov