Hilo

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 55 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Washingtons Birthday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 74 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Lows 54 to 65 near the shore to 45 to 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 69 near the shore to 44 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Washingtons Birthday: Partly sunny. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 68 near the shore to 43 to 49 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Washingtons Birthday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to 62 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 57 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Washingtons Birthday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 75 near the shore to 62 to 72 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 56 to 66 near the shore to 48 to 57 near 3000 feet. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Washingtons Birthday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy and haze. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy and haze. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Occasional showers. Lows 55 to 66 near the shore to 47 to 54 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Washingtons Birthday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 74 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with occasional showers. Lows 54 to 65 near the shore to 45 to 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 47 to 52 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.

Washingtons Birthday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Haze in the morning. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 64 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 68 near the shore to 45 to 50 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to locally strong trade winds are expected this week. Winds will be strongest in higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains across all islands. Showers carried in on the trade will be focused over windward and mauka areas.

Short term update

Issued at 856 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026
Skies were mostly cloudy this evening, and scattered showers were moving east over mainly windward and mauka areas. Rainfall amounts have been relatively light so far, with amounts in the past three hours ranging from a few hundredths to a few tenths at lower elevations, and a half inch to around an inch at higher elevations. The eruption at Kilauea continues at this time, with ash up to around 15000 ft moving southwest. Winds have come down below advisory criteria in most areas, and the wind advisory was cancelled this afternoon. No changes to the forecast are planned at this time.

Prev discussion

Issued at 338 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026
Main change with the afternoon package has been to drop the Wind Advisory. While a few gages reported very low end advisory level winds, feel they are not representative of conditions to justify the Wind Advisory. High resolution models that were showing some of the strongest winds are higher than observations, so have adjusted the forecast winds down a bit. Expect breezy trades to continue, but by and large will be just below advisory levels.
As Kilauea volcano activity has increased today, and with information from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, an Ashfall Advisory has been issued for this evening. Any extension will be based on any further eruption activity. Additionally, haze/vog has been added to the forecast for the Big Island. With trade winds at the surface, most of that activity will be carried to the southeast of the volcano, however with the most recent eruption activity, some may expand to areas to the east of the volcano. With breezy trades expected to continue over the next couple of days, the vog is not expected to move over the smaller islands.
Strong high pressure far north of the islands is helping to drive the breezy trades in the region. Over the next couple of days, the global models have the high sinking southward and weakening. This combination will maintain a pressure gradient over the islands that will support the breezy trade winds. Moisture riding in on the trades will continue to focus shower activity to the windward areas.
Meanwhile a cold front far northwest of the islands will move to the east over the next couple days with an upper level trough strengthening. The ECMWF and GFS both keep the surface and upper level features west of the islands, stalling both out around Wednesday/Thursday, and then having the system retrograde to the west at the end of the week.

Aviation

Issued at 338 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026
Breezy easterly trade winds continue today, bringing bands of showers along with it. These showers will continue to primarily affect windward and mountain areas across the state, with some spillover showers leaking into leeward areas. MVFR conditions will occur within the showers while VFR prevails elsewhere. These intermittent showers are expected to continue through tonight.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. This will likely be needed for the next several days. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island due to ongoing and upstream low clouds and showers. TEMPO light icing is also possible within a layer between 130-FL240 from Oahu to Big Island due to higher level clouds moving over the state today.
Recently, Kilauea produced an ash cloud reaching up to 35kft according to radar. A volcanic ash SIGMET under series Papa has been issued to cover the ash cloud.

Marine

Issued at 338 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026
Sprawling 1045mb high anchored over the NE Pacific Basin is driving strong trades and localized near-gales over the waters this afternoon. Existing Gale Warning has been transitioned to a Small Craft Advisory based on the latest ASCAT and water-adjacent land observations. Governing high pressure weakens by late this week allowing trades to ease.
Observed surf along E shores solidly in the High Surf Advisory range where it will likely remain into mid-week. The HSA therefore remains in effect and may need to be extended into Wednesday as strong trades and fresh easterly trade wind swell persist.
Minimal energy anticipated out of the N, W, and S quadrants through the period. Surf along N and W facing exposures gets a small bump Wednesday and Thursday courtesy of a small, medium period NW swell.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East, Big Island North, Big Island Southeast, East Honolulu, Kauai East, Kauai South, Kipahulu, Koolau Windward, Maui Windward West, Molokai Southeast, Molokai Windward, Olomana, Windward Haleakala.
Ashfall Advisory until 10 PM HST this evening for Big Island East, Big Island Southeast.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters, Big Island Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Kauai Channel, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maui County Windward Waters, Oahu Leeward Waters, Oahu Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov