Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 50 to 57 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph decreasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph becoming 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 50 to 57 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 53 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph with gusts to 50 mph.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Breezy. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 65 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Lows 70 to 75 near the shore to around 53 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades focus clouds and showers windward and mauka for the next week especially at night and early morning.

Discussion

Strong stability prevails and is characterized by a stout trade wind inversion that slopes slightly downward from around 7kft at Kauai to 6kft at Hilo. Moisture remains trapped beneath the inversion leading to a rather impressive coverage of showers in recent nights despite synoptically dry and stable conditions. Suspect this pattern will continue as the latest modeling indicates high stability persisting through the forecast period. As such, strong June diurnal warming above cloud tops will easily suppress daytime convection while nighttime shower coverage overachieves. Shower intensity will remain light as capping remains strong and moisture depth remains relatively shallow. Mid-level ridging anchored N to NE of the islands maintains breezy trades for at least the next 7 days.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy and gusty trades will gradually increase through Monday. Low cigs and SHRA will be mostly focused over windward and mauka locations. Some spillover to leeward sides isn't out of the question. MVFR conds possible in any SHRA otherwise VFR prevails.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb downwind of island terrain. This will likely continue through the weekend as trade winds strengthen.

Marine

High pressure north of the region will strengthen and dominate through the forecast period. As a result, trade winds will increase a notch through the rest of this weekend and remain through next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains in effect through Monday, but will likely need to be extended and possibly expanded in coverage as the trades strengthen.
A series of small, long-period, south swells originating near New Zealand will help boost surf heights to near the summer average (5 feet) throughout next week. The first of these should fill in Sunday into Monday, followed by another Wednesday into Thursday of next week.
Rough and choppy surf along east facing shores is expected to slightly increase into early next week due to the strengthening trade winds. Surf will remain at seasonable levels (nearly flat) along north facing shores throughout the forecast period, though select exposures could see some tradewind swell wrap.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov