Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph decreasing to up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 49 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 48 to 53 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to 64 to 73 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 72 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trade winds will carry periodic bands of showers across the Hawaiian Islands throughout the week. Rainfall will focus on windward and mountain areas, with stray showers reaching leeward areas.

Discussion

The fairly typical rainfall distribution has continued in the past 24 hours, although windward Big Island has remained on the dry side. Rainfall from the past 24 hours is generally from .10 to .50 of an inch other windward areas, and .10 inch or less leeward. Winds are breezy to gusty this afternoon with a few areas reaching 35 mph or greater in Maui's Central Valley and north shores, and the Kohala District on the Big Island.
A 1036 mb high located far to the north northwest of the state moving slowly eastward will weaken and take up a closer position north of the state by the weekend. Thus we expect a continuation of breezy trade winds to be felt this week. Afternoon gustiness is expected over and around island terrain in the normally windier areas each day.
A weak upper level ridge is roughly positioned over Hawaii this afternoon, which weakens further this week as the effects of an amplifying upper trough in the westerlies brushes by Thursday and Friday. The upper trough should have little impact to our weather, but will give us the benefit of more ample trade wind showers in our forecast for the week. The forecast model guidance is in agreement in keeping atmospheric instability limited, with inversion heights ranging from 7 to 10 k ft through the week, so rainfall totals should add up to near to even a bit above normal amounts for the 7 day period.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the week. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with pockets of moisture producing MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. High clouds associated with an upper level disturbance will continue to stream across the state through tonight.
AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration remains in effect for Oahu, with conditions continuing into tonight.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence will remain marginal for areas east of Molokai due to breezy trade winds.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will prevail today across the coastal waters, then strengthen to fresh to strong levels Tuesday night through the end of the work week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island through 6 PM HST Tuesday. This SCA will likely be extended in time through the end of the week and potentially expanded to additional waters around mid-week.
A long-period south swell will decline through Thursday. A larger south swell will arrive by the end of the week, and peak near advisory levels along south facing shores next weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores will hold steady near seasonal averages through the week. A series of small northwest and north swells will move through the islands bumping up north and west shore surf heights by Tuesday.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov