Hilo

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 47 to 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 46 to 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 69 near the shore to 42 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 42 to 49 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Windy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Windy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Windy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Breezy. Cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 47 to 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Cloudy and breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tuesday Night: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 46 to 54 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Windy. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 47 to 52 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Windy. Highs 81 to 88 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 30 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to 46 to 52 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy to strong trades will continue through the forecast period bringing a return to a typical distribution of clouds and showers focused mainly over windward and mauka areas.

Discussion

Currently at the surface, a weakening stationary front is located around 125 miles north of Kauai, while a strong 1033 mb high is centered around 800 miles north of Honolulu. The gradient locally has tightened up considerably during the past 24 hours, with breezy trades in place across the entire state. Infrared satellite imagery shows partly cloudy conditions in most areas, with a bit more cloud cover in some windward and mauka locations as well as leeward sections of the Big Island. Radar imagery showers a few showers moving into windward Maui and the Big Island, with mostly dry conditions elsewhere. Main short focus revolves around the strong winds and the potential need for a Wind Advisory across portions of the state during the next couple days.
A strong area of high pressure north of the state will build eastward well to the north of the islands during the next couple days. This high will weaken Thursday and Friday, before being quickly replaced by a new strong high building north of the area over the weekend into early next week. An extended period of breezy to windy trades can be expected across the island chain. The winds appear particularly strong Tuesday through Wednesday, and a Wind Advisory may be required for some of the windier Maui County and Big Island zones. We will monitor observations closely through the night and make a decision on the need for an advisory with the morning forecast package.
As for the remaining weather details, fairly typical trade wind weather featuring windward and mauka showers along with the occasional leeward spillover can be expected over the eastern islands through Tuesday. Rather dry weather should prevail across Kauai and Oahu however, with only a few light showers possibly mainly windward and mauka. There could be an increase in trade wind showers here Tuesday afternoon as some deeper moisture begins to move in from the east. A more uniform and typical trade wind regime should take hold across the entire state Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with showers favoring windward/mauka areas and a few showers reaching leeward areas from time to time. Moisture assoicated with an old front appears to get pushed through the islands Thursday, increasing trade wind shower coverage. Fairly typical trade wind weather should fill back in Thursday night and continue through early next week, with periodic bands of moisture moving in on the trades and increasing shower coverage as they do.

Aviation

Strong surface high pressure will pass north of the Main Hawaiian islands over the next several days and bring breezy to locally windy trade winds. Periods of clouds and brief showers will favor windward and mauka areas during the overnight to early morning hours. Brief MVFR conditions will be possible in showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.
AIRMET TANGO for low-level turbulence over and downstream of island terrain is in effect due to the strengthening trade winds and will likely be extended through the next several days.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trade winds will strengthen into strong to near gale force levels from tonight into early Thursday as high pressure builds north of the island chain. Winds should trend slightly lower from late Thursday into Saturday, as a cold front approaches the island waters from the north. Seas will remain rough through the week, with a combination of short period wind waves and northwest swells moving through the Hawaii Region. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue for all Hawaiian waters through much of the week due to a combination of strong winds and higher seas.
Surf along exposed north and west facing shores will peak this evening through early Tuesday as a fresh northwest (310-320 degrees) swell builds down the island chain. Offshore buoy observations seem to reach the predicted peak this afternoon and evening. Expect surf heights to reach low end advisory levels for exposed north and west facing shores through early Tuesday, then gradually ease late Tuesday through midweek. Another upward trend is expected late Thursday through Saturday as a couple of northwest (320-330 degrees) swells arrive, peaking Friday night into Saturday. This may push surf heights back to advisory levels at the peak late Friday into Saturday. A downward trend is then expected through early next week.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough through the week due to strong easterly trade winds.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small, with mainly background south and southeast swells.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for all Hawaiian waters,

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov