Hilo

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to 43 to 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 43 to 51 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 58 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 51 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 58 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy and haze. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 48 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 63 to 69 near the shore to 48 to 56 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to around 68 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 68 near the shore to 48 to 54 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows 69 to 74 near the shore to 47 to 53 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 73 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 47 to 53 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A high pressure system passing north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast tonight. Winds will veer east southeasterly Tuesday through Friday with a gradual weakening trend through the end of the week. A cold front is forecast to move through the islands this weekend.

Discussion

A 1026 mb surface high centered 430 miles north of Oahu is driving breezy trade winds across the state this afternoon. Remnant clouds and showers associated with a dissipated front lies just north of Kauai. Elsewhere, expect mostly dry and stable conditions. Winds will gradually taper off Tuesday and Wednesday and veer east southeasterly as the ridge moves closer to the islands in response to an approaching front. The ridge will force the front north of it and away from the islands around midweek, but will be trailed in by another, stronger front. Winds will stay east southeasterly Tuesday through Friday with a gradual weakening trend through the end of the week. Rainfall amounts will be minimal Tuesday through Friday with highest chances across windward Big Island.
The front is forecast to arrive on Kauai on Saturday and stall near the Big Island Sunday night into early next week. An upper low or trough will form near or east of the Big Island. Still too early to tell if there will be impacts to the eastern end of the state given the differences in the long range GFS and ECMWF.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trades will continue through tomorrow with clouds and a few showers mainly confined to windward and mountain areas. Brief MVFR conditions can be expected in any showers, but VFR should generally prevail. As winds veer to become more ESE tomorrow, terrain/island blocking may lead to wind direction and speed fluctuations across wind-protected areas through the day, particularly at HNL, MKK, and OGG.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence below 9,000 feet downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through tomorrow afternoon before conditions improve sometime tomorrow evening as the trades subside slightly.
The volcanic activity at Kilauea on the Big Island will continue to be monitored closely for any impacts to aviation.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will persist through Tuesday as a ridge builds north of the area. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all Hawaiian waters either due to strong trades or for combined seas exceeding 10 feet. Trades will gradually ease and shift southeasterly around Wednesday as the ridge weakens.
Afternoon buoy and shore reports show surf heights have decreased below High Surf Warning (HSW) threshold but remain above High Surf Advisory (HSA) threshold. All HSWs are therefore downgraded to HSAs. Surf along north and west facing shores will slowly decline and potentially fall below HSA levels late Tuesday through Wednesday. Surf along east facing shores will briefly pick up through the first half of the week, with rough, short period energy expected. A downward trend is possible later in the week. For the second half of the holiday week, another warning-level northwest swell is possible, albeit smaller than this last one.

Fire weather

No critical fire weather conditions are expected for the next seven days. Mostly dry weather are forecast across the state with limited shower activity as the dry spell continues. Breezy trade winds will gradually weaken through the rest of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and Big Island and for north facing shores of Maui.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters,

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov