Hilo

Tonight: Clear. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.

Kona

Tonight: Clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds around 10 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 70 near the shore to 45 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs around 78 near the shore to 69 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 69 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

South Big Island

Tonight: Clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. East winds around 10 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Clear. Lows 59 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds around 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Lows 60 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 56 at 4000 feet. Light winds.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Saturday: Sunny. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Saturday Night: Clear. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to around 51 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Stable and mostly dry conditions, accompanied by light winds, will prevail tonight through Sunday. Trade winds will return Sunday night, bringing a few windward showers, with winds expected to ease slightly and veer to the east-southeast later in the week.

Discussion

Satellite and radar imagery show scattered to broken low clouds over island interiors this afternoon and a couple very light showers, especially over the western end of the state. Lingering low-level moisture from the remnants of an old front will keep scattered showers in the forecast around Kauai and Oahu tonight. However, a surface ridge over the state should maintain a light enough background flow for land breezes to develop tonight and keep most of the shower activity offshore. In addition, deep- layer subsidence will remain in place over the islands for the next couple of days to keep things on the dry side. The light flow will favor a land and sea breeze pattern into Sunday, with mostly clear nights and mornings, and a slight chance of an afternoon shower or two.
Guidance indicates a kink in the jet forming north of the islands late this weekend, resulting in amplified mid-level ridging to the NW. At the same time, a strengthening surface high moving by to the east at around 30N will bring a return to a typical breezy trade wind pattern late Sunday through Tuesday. This pattern could also lower dew points by a handful of degrees from their recent unseasonably high values of around 70F. A small pool of moisture associated with another dissipated front may fuel a slight increase in windward showers for the smaller islands as the models brush this weak boundary across the northern edge of the state.
Ensemble and long-range guidance is in reasonable agreement that a veered ESE trade wind flow will prevail for the second half of next week as the surface high sits northeast of the state with an associated ridge just N of the islands. Mostly dry weather will likely continue, with limited windward rainfall and virtually none leeward. Longer range ensembles suggest some weakening of the mid-level ridge just beyond a week from now, potentially supporting some much-needed rain. As it stands, this December has been marked by well below normal rainfall.
The winter solstice will occur at 11:20pm HST tonight.

Aviation

A deep ridge over the area will maintain light and variable winds and stable conditions through at least Saturday. Shallow moisture from the remnants of a front will linger around Oahu and Kauai through Saturday, and daytime sea breezes may produce isolated MVFR conditions in -SHRA over interior portions of these islands each afternoon. VFR will dominate elsewhere.
A ridge aloft continues to build overhead as an upper-level trough moves away to the south, leading to TEMPO moderate turbulence above FL200 around the Big Island and Maui. AIRMET Tango is in effect and will likely be cancelled by 0400Z.

Marine

A ridge will remain near the islands over the next few days, keeping light winds in place across local waters through the weekend. A series of large northwest swells will keep combined seas in most marine zones above the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory (SCA) threshold through the weekend. Models show a high building north of the state will bring a return of fresh to locally strong trade winds Sunday night through Tuesday. This will likely boost winds up to SCA levels in the typically windier waters even as the swell subsides.
A series of large to extra large northwest to north-northwest swells will continue to move through the islands over the weekend, peaking on Sunday. A High Surf Warning (HSW) for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and north facing shores of Maui has been extended through 6 PM Sunday. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) for north facing shores of the Big Island has been extended through 6 PM Sunday. More swell energy is reaching west facing shores of the Big Island than expected this afternoon, resulting in higher observed surf there. The HSA for west facing shores of the Big Island has therefore been upgraded to an HSW, which is in effect through 6 PM Sunday.
Surf may briefly dip below advisory levels late Saturday afternoon and evening before the largest of the swells arrive late Saturday night into Sunday. This swell is expected to bring the largest surf of the season to north facing shores on Sunday.
Aside from areas exposed to wrapping northwest swell, surf along east and south facing shores will remain small through the weekend. East shore surf will trend up early next week as the trades over and upstream of the islands strengthen.

Fire weather

No fire weather concerns through the forecast period as winds remain sufficiently light and RH elevated enough.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Maui Windward West, Kona, Kohala, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay,

Big Island Now Weather is brought to you by Blue Hawaiian Helicopters.

Check out their Big Island Helicopter Tours today!

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov