Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Windy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 65 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 81 near the shore to 71 to 78 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to 53 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 52 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 56 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Stable and breezy trade wind weather will prevail through late next week, with embedded low clouds and showers occasionally moving through the islands. Rainfall will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas at times.

Discussion

There is little or change in forecast philosophy since this morning. A high far north of the main Hawaiian Islands is driving moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters this afternoon. Satellite loop shows scattered to patchy broken low clouds embedded within this flow concentrating across windward and mauka sections of most islands. Leeward areas tend to have clearer skies, along with waters lee of the islands. However, cloud cover increased dramatically across Kona and Kau shores and slopes of the Big Island since this morning, thanks to a combination of return flow and daytime heating. Leeward Big Island cloud cover will decrease overnight as evening cooling sets in. Radar shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward areas, with a few of these showers pushing leeward.
Models show the high to our north will shift east and merge with a new building high to the distant northeast of the islands by late Sunday. This will keep the pressure gradient across the islands sufficiently steep to support breezy trade winds through the period. Trades could become quite strong late next week as the high moves southward and closer to the island chain.
Expect a typical trade wind weather pattern for the next week or so, with embedded bands of low clouds and showers moving through. Rainfall will favor windward slopes and coasts, particularly at night and during the early morning hours, with a few showers reaching leeward areas at times as well.

Aviation

Breezy easterly trade winds will continue through the remainder of the weekend, with scattered showers primarily affecting windward and mountain areas. Lingering low-level moisture from a dissipated front will keep trade wind showers on the wetter side for the western two-thirds of the island chain, with a focus over Kauai tonight into Sunday morning. Brief MVFR conditions will be mainly confined to windward areas, while VFR will dominate leeward areas.
AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence remains in effect over and down wind of all island mountains due to the breezy trade wind flow. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed again tonight for the western islands if showers become widespread enough.

Marine

High pressure to the north of the state will shift to the north and east over the next several days and will maintain fresh to locally strong northeasterly trades through at least the middle of next week. A strong high pressure is then forecast to develop around the middle of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island and could be expanded to include additional waters around Wednesday. In the extended, there is growing confidence for trades to further strengthen as a northeast Pacific high becomes increasingly dominant. Strong trade winds could become widespread during the second half of next week with even gales possible for select channels.
The current medium period NNW (320-350 degree) swell will gradually decline through Monday. A moderate NW (320 degree) swell is expected to take its place on Monday and will likely peak near advisory levels Monday evening. This swell will be followed by a larger NW (320 degree) swell filling in on Wednesday, which should produce advisory level surf for N and W facing shores. Surf along east- facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the middle of next week due to the breezy trade winds. Long range models are showing a significant increase of windswell towards the latter half of next week due to a large fetch of strong trade winds setting up over and upstream of the state. Surf should easily reach advisory thresholds (10 ft) and it may reach warning levels (15 ft) along east facing shores during its peak.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small and near the seasonal average through the middle of next week. Tiny long-period pulses will be possible over the next few days.
Also with the peak monthly tides coming up towards the latter half of next week (Nov 14th to Nov 18th) we could see coastal inundation impacts during the early morning hours along all coastlines. The large windswell combined with the peak monthly tides could cause greater impacts along windward shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov