Hilo

Rest Of Tonight: Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday Night: Frequent showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 72 near the shore to 46 to 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening. Lows around 71 near the shore to 46 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph after midnight. Gusts up to 50 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 62 to 82. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Rest Of Tonight: Breezy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday: Frequent showers in the morning, then numerous showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 62 to 67 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Thursday Night: Frequent showers. Lows 61 to 69 near the shore to 51 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain near 100 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Lows around 73 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph with gusts to 45 mph.

Thursday: Sunny and windy. Highs 82 to 90 near the shore to 66 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Expect a typical trade wind weather pattern through the forecast period, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. A weak front will stall and dissipate across the islands trough tonight. This will boost trades into the locally breezy category into the weekend.

Discussion

Upper troughing persists across the state as a weak front settles across the western islands. Clouds and showers within background trade flow assumed a more typical trade wind weather pattern this morning with the departure of a weak surface trough, with both now favoring windward and mauka areas. Trade wind flow remains in the locally breezy category. Satellite loop shows patchy broken to overcast low clouds across windward and mauka portions of Kauai and Oahu, with scattered to patchy broken low clouds noted across windward portions of the other islands. Leeward and Kau Big Island skies also have broken to overcast low clouds. Radar shows the bulk of trade showers occurring within cloud cover over and near Kauai, Oahu and Molokai. Very little rainfall is occurring farther to the east.
The weak front across the western islands will push southeast and stall somewhere near Maui County Thursday before dissipating. Models show a high will build behind this front and strengthen northeasterly trade winds across the region. Breezy trades will continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend as the high remains anchored to the northwest and batches of moisture are pushed in on the trades. Rainfall with favor windward and mauka areas.
Models show an upper low will dig southeastward to a position southeast of the Big Island late this week and into the weekend. However, models differ a bit on the strength and positioning of this upper feature as well as on available atmospheric moisture. Available moisture may be the limiting factor in shower development Friday into Saturday, but an uptick in moisture Saturday night into Sunday, combined with increased instability, may help to enhance trade wind showers for the second half of the weekend into early next week.

Aviation

A shallow and weak front will move past Kauai late this afternoon and will stall over Maui tonight and Thursday. After clearing Kauai before sundown, moisture along the diffuse feature will produce MVFR ceilings and SHRA over north and northeast slopes of Oahu, Molokai, and Maui this evening. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect from Kauai though Molokai through the afternoon. The AIRMET will likely be dropped on Kauai by 04Z and on Oahu around midnight, and the AIRMET should expand eastward to Maui around 06Z. Moisture along the dissipating front is expected to affect windward Maui County into Thursday.
High pressure building behind the front is driving gusty northeast winds that are filtering through the front and affecting all islands. As an inversion builds through the evening, expect most areas to experience low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for all islands.
An upper level trough will produce moderate turbulence between FL250 and FL350 around Kauai this afternoon, where AIRMET Tango is in effect. These conditions will spread to Oahu and Maui County tonight and Big Island Thursday.

Marine

A cold front near Kauai will track slowly eastward this evening, then stall and dissipate over Maui County by Friday. Strong high pressure will build in from the northwest behind the front. Trade winds will hold at fresh to strong levels today through early next week. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for waters surrounding Kauai and the usual windy areas. Conditions are expected to continue through Friday and possibly beyond.
Surf along north and west-facing shores will trend up this this with the arrival of a pair of overlapping moderate sized medium-period north-northwest swells. This, combined with strong northeast winds, will create rough conditions for most north- facing shores that will last through the weekend. A second pair of moderate sized long- period northwest swells could move through during the early to middle part of next week, potentially bringing a more sizable boost to north and west facing shores.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain elevated but choppy through early next week due to the strong trade wind flow over and upstream of the Islands.
Surf along south-facing shores will remain small and near the seasonal average through the middle of next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters, Kauai Channel, Kaiwi Channel, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov