Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 66 to 85. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 70 near the shore to 54 to 59 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to 52 to 57 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming east up to 10 mph after midnight.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 66 to 74 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate east to east-southeast winds will continue, along with passing windward and mauka showers, through Thursday. Expect afternoon sea breezes and overnight land breezes to develop as winds weaken Friday. An upper low may enhance rainfall this weekend. Moderate trades will return early next week.

Discussion

With the ridge to our north disrupted by troughing to the northwest, local trade flow remains veered a bit to east- southeasterlies. An area of embedded patchy broken to overcast low clouds continues to affect Kauai this afternoon, but drier air continues to move in from east to west, reducing shower coverage elsewhere. Afternoon soundings reflect the satellite presentation, with over half an inch of PW noted at Lihue while only 1.1 inches of PW was noted at Hilo.
The disrupted ridge will maintain moderate low level flow through Thursday before a combination of lows and troughs weaken it enough to allow development of land and sea breezes across the island chain. By Friday, expect more cloud build ups and increased showers across mauka and leeward areas each afternoon and evening. Models show an upper low setting up over the state this weekend which may increase the potential for enhanced rainfall Saturday and Sunday. While models differ a bit, they generally show the upper low filling in and lifting northeastward early next week, allowing the ridge to rebuild. This should steepen the pressure gradient and boost trades to moderate strength once again.

Aviation

A ridge north of the state will maintain moderate trade winds over the region through Thursday. VFR will prevail under a relatively dry and stable atmosphere, with only brief MVFR conditions possible in any light showers moving into windward and mountain areas.

Marine

A weak ridge of high pressure north of the state should maintain moderate to locally fresh easterly trades across the state through Thursday. Winds are expected to drop a notch to gentle to moderate speeds on Friday, as a low passes far north of the state. Winds should remain at gentle to moderate speeds through Saturday then gradually strengthen Sunday into the first half of next week as a high builds north of the state. Winds could return to Small Craft Advisory levels for the typical windy waters by next week Monday.
As the current small northwest swell fades away tonight, A pair of overlapping small, short period north swells should maintain small surf in place along north-facing shores through this weekend. There is the potential for the arrival of a moderate long period north-northwest swell as early as Sunday and likely peaking next Monday, below advisory levels for north facing shores.
The current long period south southwest swell will continue to gradually fade over the next few days. A moderate, long period south swell should slowly fill in Saturday, peak Sunday and hold into Monday then gradually decline through the middle of next week. This swell will may boost surf along south facing shores to near advisory levels during its peak.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov