Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 85. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 57 to 63 near 3000 feet. East winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 60 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 64 to 72 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 66 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 76 near the shore to 54 to 59 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather will continue over the next several days with light passing showers over windward and mountain areas and mostly dry conditions over leeward areas. Trade winds will slightly decrease over the weekend to gentle to moderate speeds.

Discussion

High pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade wind weather through the next several days. 00Z sounding from Lihue and Hilo show a strong inversion at around 6500 feet. The stable conditions have limited the shower activity with only a few light showers over the windward areas and the Kona slopes of the Big Island during the day today. Latest satellite imagery is showing some scattered cumulus clouds upstream of the state, which should bring a slight uptick of showers compared to the past few days. Generally though, fairly dry trade wind weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers over windward area at times and a few light showers possible over leeward areas. Trade winds will also slightly decrease over the next few days with a gentle to moderate trade wind pattern expected over the weekend. Winds may become light enough for localized sea breezes over select leeward areas this weekend.
For next week, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the local trade wind speeds. GFS model continues to show a lighter trade wind pattern, while the ECMWF shows a breezy trade wind pattern by Tuesday. Stay tuned for updates.

Aviation

Locally breezy trades remain on the drier side through the period, delivering limited clouds and showers to windward and mauka zones. VFR prevails areawide with nothing more than spotty MVFR anticipated within any heavier showers.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

High pressure over the North Pacific will hold through Friday then weaken over the weekend in response to a front passing far north of the state. Trade wind weather will continue but wind speeds will weaken slightly over the weekend. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will likely return next week once high pressure rebuilds.
The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island will remain in effect through tonight. Wind speeds remain at or just above SCA criteria, but are expected to ease off by morning.
Latest offshore buoys 51001 and 51101 show a gradual decline of the moderate long period northwest swell (320 to 330 degrees). This swell has already begun to decline and will further subside through Friday. Meanwhile, a new north- northwest swell will build in Friday to provide a small, short lived boost this weekend.
Multiple small south and southwest swells are expected now into early next week. The first, a long period southwest swell and will decline overnight. The second, a small short period southwest swell will will overlap the first and linger through the weekend. The next long- period south- southwest swell is expected to arrive on Monday and peak late Tuesday or Wednesday.
East facing shores will remain small through at least Sunday due to the lack of strong trades upstream of the state. Easterly surf is expected to rebuild next week.

Fire weather

Fire weather conditions will continue to be somewhat elevated through Thursday due to the moderate to locally breezy trade winds and ongoing drought conditions for many leeward areas. But, critical fire weather (Red Flag) conditions are not expected anytime soon due to the trade winds likely remaining below the 20 mph Red Flag Warning criteria. Trade winds should begin to gradually ease tomorrow into the weekend with minimum humidities holding around 50 percent at HNL. No significant rainfall is expected through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov