Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to around 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 89 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to 51 to 58 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Saturday Night: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 59 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 75 near the shore to 53 to 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the southeast after midnight. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88 near the shore to 70 to 76 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 56 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through Saturday with a slight decrease possible early next week. Showers will typically favor windward and mauka locations with some spillage to leeward, particularly during the overnight into early morning hours. Chances of showers may increase early next week as an area of enhanced moisture moves from east to west across the state.

Discussion

Surface observations show breezy to locally strong trade winds this afternoon with mostly fair weather conditions. Similar weather conditions are expected for this weekend with maybe slightly more shower activity during the overnight and morning hours. Any showers should be brief with mainly light rain accumulations expected. Trade wind speeds may drop a touch early next week, but overall breezy trade winds will continue through the first half of next week as high pressure remains anchored far north of the state.
Some uncertainty in the forecast begins starting late Sunday into Monday of next week. The forecast is highly dependent on if we will see some type of tropical disturbance develop far southeast of the state during the next few days. Please see the Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOCP) for more information regarding the potential tropical genesis. Latest guidance continues to show some type of tropical moisture passing near the state with the potential for heavier showers depending on how close the disturbance passes. With the Big Island being located the furthest south, they will have the greatest chance for some enhanced moisture on Monday. That being said, forecast confidence remains low at this time due to plenty of uncertainty. Beyond Tuesday and through the middle of next week, we should see our typical trade wind weather return and the possibility of stronger trade winds towards the second half of the week.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will bring low cigs and SHRA to windward and mauka areas for the next few days. MVFR conds can be expected within SHRA. VFR should generally prevail.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Maui and The Big Island. This will likely be expanded overnight into the early morning hours with increased SHRA.
AIRMET Tango for low level turb leeward of the terrain is in effect today statewide due to the breezy trades and could last through tomorrow.

Marine

Locally strong trade winds will persist into early next week, and as such, a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the typical windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island. The SCA level winds will persist at least through the weekend.
The current small south swell is expected to gradually decline over the next few days. Small background energy from the southeast expected through Saturday. A more significant south swell will arrive late Sunday and Sunday night, peaking above the summertime average Monday, and then slowly lower through the middle of next week.
Seasonally flat to tiny surf is expected through early next week for north facing shores, with the possibility of the arrival of a swell during the second half of the week from Typhoon Ampil currently near Japan. East shore surf will trend to seasonal averages through the next week.
The combination of the upcoming full moon and water levels running around 0.5 ft higher than predicted could produce minor coastal flooding during the afternoon high tides that will continue through at least Monday. A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for all islands.
Increased moisture and instability moving from east to west over the offshore waters Sunday night through Monday night south of the islands could produce some thunderstorms.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov