Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows around 73 near the shore to 48 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 89 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 56 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 75 to 82 near the shore to 69 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to 56 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 73 to 81 near the shore to 68 to 79 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 72 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny and breezy. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph.

Puna

Today: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 78 to 85 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 64 to 71 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Friday: Partly sunny with scattered showers in the morning, then mostly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 85 near the shore to around 71 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to 65 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 50 to 56 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Friday: Sunny. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to 67 to 75 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

A broad high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep moderate trade winds in the forecast through the first half of next week. Satellite imagery this morning shows an unsettled patch of clouds moving through the western islands with more stable clouds east of the state drifting into the Big Island and Maui on the trade winds. Only brief periods of showers are forecast over windward and mountain areas from this afternoon into early next week as an upper level ridge settles in over the region.

Discussion

Satellite imagery this morning shows an unsettled patch of clouds moving through the western islands with more stable clouds east of the state drifting into the Big Island and Maui on the trade winds. This weakly unstable patch of clouds will keep passing showers in the forecast for windward and mountain areas of Oahu and Kauai through the early morning hours. Drier conditions will spread to all islands starting later this morning and last into early next week.
A broad subtropical ridge will remain in place north of the Hawaiian Islands into next week. An upper level ridge will then settle in over the islands producing strong and stable subsidence today through Monday. Increasing downward vertical motions (subsidence) under this upper ridge will lower the trade wind thermal inversion heights, limiting vertical cloud development and thereby decreasing shower coverage. This upper level ridge will lift north on Monday and Tuesday, opening the door for a slight increase in windward and mountain shower coverage trends.
Long range global weather models continue to suggest that another low level wave in the easterlies may transit through the Hawaii Region by the middle of next week, potentially increasing our shower trends as this trough passes from east to west down the island chain. This next weak system may be our next best chance for decent rainfall amounts over windward and mountain areas. More numerous showers are possible over windward and mountain areas from Tuesday night through Wednesday night as this system slowly passes through each island. Rainfall amounts will also increase in this pattern during the typical overnight to early morning diurnal rainfall maximum with some windward and mountain areas possibly seeing 0.10 to 0.25 inch amounts. Forecast rainfall coverage and amounts were increased for the middle of next week to cover for this passing trough scenario.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue for the next few days. SHRA and brief MVFR conds should be confined to windward and mauka locations. Otherwise VFR should prevail.
No AIRMETs currently in effect.

Marine

The upstream pressure gradient from surface high pressure far northeast of the islands will weaken the next couple of days as troughing develops over the eastern Pacific. Trades may occasionally become locally fresh, especially in the Alenuihaha Channel, through Friday morning. Sea heights will remain in the 4 to 6 foot range the next several days.
No significant swells are expected from any direction for the remainder of the week. A series of small, medium period south southeast swells will keep south-facing shores from going completely flat through the weekend. A small fetch of strong northeast winds off the U.S. Pacific Northwest coast will generate a very small, medium period northeast swell that is scheduled to arrive this holiday weekend.
Higher than normal water levels, in tandem with new moon tides, has produced higher than normal water levels around Big Island. Water levels have exceeded 3 feet above Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) during the past few afternoon's high tides. This will continue to create minor coastal flooding issues through the weekend. Peak water levels of around 3.5 feet are expected during periods of high tides. Therefore, a Coastal Flood Statement highlighting this flooding will remain in effect for Big Island's coastal zones for the remainder of the week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov