Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph increasing to 40 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Gusts up to 40 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 64 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 64 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to 55 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 83. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Windy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Windy. Lows around 73 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 30 mph.

Wednesday: Partly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Mostly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 63 to 71 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 82 to 88 near the shore to 66 to 74 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 82 to 87 near the shore to 66 to 73 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist through rest of the week as broad high pressure remains north of the state. Stable conditions will focus limited showers over windward areas, and leeward areas will be rather dry, though leeward Big Island will experience clouds and showers each afternoon and evening.

Discussion

A breezy and stable trade wind flow is producing a somewhat dry June weather pattern. A 1030 mb surface high centered about 1000 miles north of Kauai is driving the trades, and a mid-level ridge is maintaining an inversion near 6000 feet has been measured.
Little change is expected through the week. The surface high will move eastward during the next several days and settle far northeast of the state by Saturday. A surface ridge trailing the high will remain north of the islands, but it may be weakened enough for us to experience a subtle decrease in trade winds for Friday into the weekend. Persistent mid-level ridging over the state will maintain a stable pattern of mainly windward rainfall through at least Friday. Aside from afternoon showers on the Kona slopes of the Big Island, somewhat dry weather will persist for leeward areas. Random pockets of shallow moisture moving along the trade wind flow will periodically boost windward rainfall, and one such area is expected tonight into Wednesday. A weak disturbance aloft could drive an increase in showers during the weekend.

Aviation

Breezy and mostly dry trades will hold steady. SHRA and MVFR conds should be confined to windward and mauka locations through the period. Otherwise VFR conds will prevail.
No AIRMETs currently in effect.

Marine

Fresh to strong easterly trades will continue through much of the week, as the surface ridge remains north of the area. This supports the Small Craft Advisory continuing for the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island. Guidance suggests a potential weakness forming in the ridge northwest of the state next weekend, which could lead to moderate to fresh east-southeast trades.
Surf along south facing shores will hold just under the advisory level this morning as the south-southwest swell that peaked early Monday steadily lowers. Observations at the offshore buoys reflect this lowering trend early this morning, with the peak energy shifting down into the 13 to 15 second bands. This trend will continue through midweek, with mainly a mix of the fading south- southwest swell and a small, medium-period southeast swell. A fresh, long-period south swell is expected to arrive Thursday night into Friday, then peak late Friday into Saturday. This swell will hold through early next week as it slowly fades.
Surf along north-facing shores will remain up above the summertime average (flat) through a good portion of the week as small, short-period north to north-northwest swells move through.
Surf along east-facing shores will remain small and choppy through the week, with a limited trade wind fetch across the eastern Pacific.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov