Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly clear. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Sunday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Waimea
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 53 to 62 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Kohala
Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers early in the morning, then isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to 53 to 62 near 3000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the southwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 79 near the shore to 66 to 76 near 3000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 30 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the morning. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the southeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 58 to 69 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Sunday: Mostly sunny early in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 66 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 49 to 59 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph.
Sunday: Sunny early in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to 67 to 73 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Dry and stable conditions with moderate easterly trades have returned and will persist through the day, with clouds and light showers favoring windward and mauka locations. Trade winds will be disrupted tonight through late Sunday as a cold front approaches and passes to the north. Breezy trade wind conditions will return on New Year's Day, then persist through much of next week as high pressure builds to the north behind this passing boundary.
Discussion
Satellite imagery showed the low cloud band/moisture axis associated with the front that brought the showery and cool conditions to windward areas over past couple of days south to southeast of the Big Island. Drier and more stable trade wind conditions associated with high pressure to the north of the area have filled in across the islands. The Lihue upper air sounding profile reflected these drier conditions this morning with PWs well under an inch and a strong subsidence inversion positioned around 5,000 ft. Expect these dry conditions to persist through the day, with the best chance for windward showers remaining over the eastern end of the state this morning closer to the moisture axis to the south.
Guidance remains persistent and shows the surface ridge to the north breaking down tonight through Sunday as a shortwave trough and its attendant cold front approach the region. The trades will respond and veer out of the southeast, which will allow overnight land breezes and daytime sea breezes to form on Sunday. Dry conditions should limit any shower coverage through the day Sunday.
Moderate north to northeast winds will quickly fill in late Sunday through New Year's Day as the cold front passes far north of the state. Although the tail-end of this passing front is forecast to stall nearby to the north, a slight increase in moisture combined with the northerly flow could translate to increasing cloud coverage (shallow) with a few light showers for north through east facing slopes and coasts Sunday night. Breezy easterly trades will return through the day Monday as high pressure builds to the north behind the passing boundary. With the upper trough lingering in the area, windward shower coverage may increase and persist through Tuesday. Guidance shows the breezy easterly trades holding through midweek, then potentially shifting out of the east-southeast due to weakness in the ridge to the north through the second half of the week.
Aviation
Remnant clouds and a few showers are starting to break up over east Maui and the eastern half of the Big Island this morning. A hybrid moderate trade wind with land and sea breeze weather pattern will continue through the weekend. Fairly stable conditions are expected with limited shower potential lasting into Sunday. Low MVFR cloud ceilings along the eastern slopes of the Big Island will diminish around 18Z.
AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across of the eastern slopes of the Big Island. This AIRMET will likely be dropped by sunrise this morning as conditions are beginning to improve.
Marine
Local buoys have been dropped slowly overnight but continue to remain about 1 foot above guidance. The north swell (010-020) has peaked and will subside through the day. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect through the day today for all north facing shores, as well as exposed west facing shores of Molokai and Maui, leeward coast of the Big Island north of Keahole Point and areas exposed to north swell wrap along all east facing shores. Surf heights should drop below advisory levels later this afternoon. The threat for harbor surges at north facing harbors, especially Kahului and Hilo remains through the day today. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been scaled back to now only include windward waters and channels east of the Kauai Channel. Seas will drop below the 10 foot SCA level later today.
A new large, long-period, northwest (320 deg) swell will arrive late tonight and Sunday, elevating surf heights back up to HSA levels for north and west facing shores and will likely require the issuance of a SCA for select waters as sea build again. SOFAR drifter buoys are indicating that this new swell will also come in above guidance so have added 1 foot to the forecast. Will continue to monitor observations to see if more adjustments need to be made. This swell should peak Sunday and slowly subside Sunday night into early next week. Surf along south facing shores will remain around the winter average through next week.
Moderate to locally fresh trades will persist through the day today. A front will approach the state from the northwest tonight into Sunday generating light and variable winds over the western half of the state and gentle to moderate southeast winds over the eastern half of the state. Winds will then shift out of the northeast Sunday night and gradually strengthen fresh to locally strong easterly trades Monday night as a new high builds north of the state. The high will slowly track east maintaining moderate to locally strong trades through mid-week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Maui Windward West, Maui Leeward West, Kohala, Kauai North, Kauai East, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Oahu Windward Waters, Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Windward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
This comments section is a public community forum for the purpose of free expression. Although Big Island Now encourages respectful communication only, some content may be considered offensive. Please view at your own discretion. View Comments
