Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 69 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 84 to 90 near the shore to around 72 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph in the morning becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Wednesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 89 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 83. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 63 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 65 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Wednesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 72 to 80 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.
Wednesday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 85 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 68 to 73 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows 62 to 72 near the shore to around 57 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Wednesday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to 69 to 75 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny. Highs 82 to 92 near the shore to around 72 above 4000 feet. North winds around 10 mph.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 75 near the shore to 51 to 58 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east after midnight.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. Highs 82 to 91 near the shore to around 71 above 4000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Expect a trade wind weather pattern through the weekend, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka areas. Trade winds will remain in the moderate to locally breezy range. Total rainfall will be light as a persistent subsidence inversion caps cloud and shower development.
Discussion
There is little to no change in synoptic setup and forecast philosophy from last evening. High pressure far north of the main Hawaiian Islands continues to drive moderate to breezy trade winds across local waters this morning. Overnight soundings show that our airmass is not particularly dry or stable, but is capped at around 5000 feet by a subsidence inversion that limits cloud and shower development. Satellite loop shows a broad field of stable broken to overcast low clouds extending from Hawaiian windward waters almost all the way to the mainland. The western edge of this cloud field covers most windward shores and slopes at this hour. However, radar corroborates the effects of the capping inversion by showing very little activity beneath this cloud cover.
Models show high pressure will remain parked far north of the islands through the week, while ridging aloft caps cloud and shower development. This pattern will keep the state embedded within trade wind flow. Moderate to breezy east northeast trade winds will continue into the foreseeable future. Limited showers riding in on the trades will focus over windward shores and slopes. The leeward side of the Big Island will see a diurnal pattern of mostly clear skies in the morning and then increasing clouds and scattered showers each afternoon before clearing again overnight.
Aviation
Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue for the next several days. These locally breezy winds will support continuing AIRMET Tango for moderate low-level turbulence downwind of the terrain of all islands through at least mid-week.
As of 2 am Tuesday, satellite imagery showed thick bands of stratocumulus and scattered light showers hugging the northeast slopes and coasts of the Hawaiian Islands. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for Kauai and Oahu. Conditions may temporarily spread to the windward slopes of the other islands later this morning. Clouds are expected to lift and clear over inland areas in the afternoon.
This trade wind weather pattern with clouds and showers favoring windward locations, especially during the overnight through morning hours, will continue through the remainder of the week.
Marine
Surface high pressure centered far north northwest of the islands is producing a tight pressure gradient down across the state. This will equate to fresh to locally strong trade winds through the week. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for winds in effect for the typical windier waters surrounding Maui County and Big Island has been extended through early Thursday morning.
No significant swells are expected over the several days. Thus, small surf heights along all shores are forecast this week. A small, long period south swell that arrived yesterday and has produced a minor bump in south-facing surf heights that will linger through mid week. East-facing shore surf driven by trade wind wave energy will remain small and choppy for the foreseeable future.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.
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