Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear with isolated showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Friday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Waimea
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 76 near 3000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 79 near the shore to 65 to 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 64 near the shore to 52 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 82 near the shore to 65 to 76 near 3000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 66 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
Friday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with numerous showers. Lows 62 to 67 near the shore to around 51 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 65 to 71 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 48 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph in the evening becoming light. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Trade winds will decrease today, thanks to a weakened ridge to our north. A passing weak front may boost showers this weekend. Moderate trades will return Sunday into next week after the front passes by.
Discussion
Troughing far to our north has put a dent in the subtropical ridge, resulting in a forecast of decreasing trade winds today. Trade winds will continue to decrease into Friday as a front sinks southward. Winds will remain a touch stronger near the Big Island, but background flow will be light enough to allow development of local land and sea breezes across portions of the smaller islands, especially across sheltered leeward areas. Mauka cloud cover will increase as sea breezes form. Current satellite loop shows an area of broken to overcast low clouds moving across the islands and adjacent windward waters, while radar shows scattered moderate showers within this cloud cover favoring windward and mauka areas.
Models show the approaching front will weaken as it sinks southward. However, it will introduce additional moisture and fuel increased showers this weekend. High clouds along the southeastern flank of a weak upper low just north of Kauai are spreading eastward across the islands this morning. Expect sporadic high cloud cover as the upper low moves eastward and dissipates over the next few days. High pressure will strengthen to our north next week after the front passes by, allowing trade winds to return to at least moderate strength statewide Sunday and afterward.
Aviation
Light to moderate trade winds will persist through the forecast period. Clouds and showers will favor windward slopes and coasts and be most active in the late night and morning hours. Sea breezes will drive shower development across sheltered leeward areas in the afternoon and early evening hours. Locally heavy showers are possible over higher elevations on the Big Island. Land breezes will replace sea breezes after sunset and promote overnight clearing. Expect brief MVFR CIG or VIS in showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail statewide. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for north and east facing slopes of the smaller islands for MVFR ceilings within passing showers. No other AIRMETs are in effect or anticipated at this time.
Marine
Easterly trade winds are steadily trending down this morning due to a front passing to the north. Guidance shows this trend continuing through Friday as the tail-end of the front moves into the area. This will translate to localized land and sea breezes, which may continue through early Saturday. Thereafter, northeast (040 deg) winds will return to moderate to fresh levels late Saturday through Monday as the ridge builds eastward and the frontal boundary diminishes in the area. Northeast winds will shift out of the east Tuesday through midweek.
Surf along north facing shores will trend up beginning later today as a fresh medium-period north-northwest swell arrives. This will be a long-lived event due to the evolution of the generation source over the past few days near the Aleutians and the current large gyre that has setup far north of the islands near Kodiak. Guidance shows this event peaking over the weekend, likely delivering a late season advisory, then slowly easing early next week.
Surf along exposed south facing shores will remain up into next week as a medium-period small south-southeast swells moves through. Additionally, small background south and south-southwest long- period swells are possible beginning early next week. A combo of the southerly and southeasterly swells will be enough to keep the surf up each day through middle of next week.
Surf along east facing shores will remain small through early next week due to the lack of easterly trades locally and upstream across the eastern Pacific.
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