Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kona
Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Waimea
Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Clear. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Kohala
Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to 70 to 77 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Clear. Lows around 62 near the shore to 48 to 56 near 3000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 71 to 77 near 3000 feet. Light winds becoming northwest up to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
South Big Island
Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 71 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds around 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then clear after midnight. Lows around 65 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming south around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Rest Of Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 63 near the shore to around 49 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Tuesday: Sunny. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to 66 to 72 at 4000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waikoloa
Rest Of Today: Sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to 65 to 72 above 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Lows around 66 near the shore to 45 to 53 above 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs 79 to 84 near the shore to around 70 above 4000 feet. Light winds becoming west around 10 mph in the afternoon.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Light to moderate southerly winds will focus the showers over the leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu this week, while mostly dry conditions will continue for Maui County and the Big Island. Kauai can expect to see a few more showers Tuesday and Wednesday as a front passes north of the islands.
Discussion
As expected, some tweaks were made to the forecast with the morning package, but the overall flavor of the forecast remains. The southerly winds will continue through the week, and will focus limited showers over the leeward sections of the islands, particularly of Kauai and Oahu. A frontal system passing north of the islands Tuesday and Wednesday will boost rain chances over Kauai.
Zonal upper level flow continues to the north of the islands, leaving a relatively stable mid to upper level airmass over the islands. Low pressure to the far north-northeast and to the west will both move to the northeast, remaining north of the islands. This will maintain the southerly wind flow over the islands into the weekend. While the low to the west passing by to the north of the islands, its associated cold front will brush the northern end of the state, and will likely boost showers over Kauai Tuesday and Wednesday. The forecast has been modified to reflect the National Blend of Models depiction. Another low is expected to follow in its footsteps during the second half of the week.
Otherwise, with the low level southerly flow, showers will be focused over the leeward areas of Kauai and Oahu, with fewer showers expected over Maui County and the Big Island. That being said, with the light southerly winds, the occasional heavy downpour within afternoon convection over the southeast or windward slopes is possible.
During the end of the weekend and into early next weekend, the global models show an upper level trough digging to the northwest of the islands. This would help to drive an associated cold front towards the islands early next week. The latest run of the ECMWF shows an upper level low developing along the trough on Sunday, while the GFS is a little slower in that development. With this being a week away, plenty of time to monitor the development of this situation.
Aviation
Light southwest flow will persist through the remainder of this morning and allow for isolated showers to affect mainly leeward portions of the islands. Brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibility remain possible with any of the more robust shower activity, especially near Kauai. Elsewhere, expect VFR conditions to prevail.
A strong jetstream extends across the state, therefore will continue AIRMET Tango for moderate turbulence across the Big Island through this morning.
Marine
Ridge will meander over and south of the islands through the week as a series of lows move through from west to east along a frontal boundary positioned nearby to the north. This pattern supports periods of moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds beginning later this afternoon. Expect the higher winds and choppier seas over the Kauai and Oahu waters, closer to these features passing through to the north. The eastern end of the state will remain near the ridge axis most of the week, which will translate to land and sea breeze conditions with a background southerly flow prevailing. Seas will remain on the small side with minimal swell energy expected.
Small surf will prevail for all shores this week with mainly a mix of background northwest, north-northeast and south swell expected.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.
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