Today: Showers early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning, then scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 49 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Thursday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 76 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then numerous showers after midnight. Lows around 69 near the shore to 54 to 62 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 76 near the shore to 63 to 73 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph increasing to 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 45 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Windy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 52 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Windy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Showers early in the morning, then numerous showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain near 100 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then showers after midnight. Lows 65 to 70 near the shore to around 56 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Thursday: Cloudy. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to 63 to 68 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Breezy. Sunny with isolated showers early in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the late morning and afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly clear with isolated showers. Lows around 70 near the shore to 50 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Thursday: Windy. Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 30 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Moist east to southeast trades combined with an upper disturbance to the west will keep the chances up for periods of showery conditions across Kauai County and the southeast facing slopes of the Kau and Puna Districts of the Big Island this morning. Elsewhere, showers will favor the typical windward and mountain areas. Drier air and strong easterly trade winds are expected through the second half of the week as low pressure to the west drifts away from the area. A wetter trade wind pattern is possible this weekend as an upper disturbance settles southward into the area.
Discussion
Guidance remains in good agreement and shows the axis of deep tropical moisture and the upper low that brought the heavy rainfall to portions of the state beginning to drift away from the area today. Mid-level ridging nosing westward accompanied by plenty of mid-level dry air will translate to a drying trend from east to west through the day. Morning upper air sounding at Lihue reflected this mid-level dry air with a temperature inversion around 7000-8000 ft. The east-southeast low-level flow will back to a more typical easterly trade wind direction tonight into Thursday, with wind speeds potentially reaching the advisory level as strong high pressure sets up to the north-northeast.
For the upcoming weekend, guidance shows an upper trough moving in from the northeast. Lowering upper heights and increasing instability associated with this upper feature could support increasing trade wind shower coverage. Although the bulk of the showers will favor windward areas, the brisk trades will manage to carry some into leeward areas, especially through the overnight and early morning periods this weekend.
Aviation
A breezy wet trade wind pattern will last through the TAF period. Expect MVFR conditions from time to time across windward areas as increased moisture, embedded within trade flow, pushes across the state. Breezy trade winds will necessitate continuing AIRMET Tango, for low-level moderate turbulence, across Maui, Molokai, and Oahu, through today. This may be expanded later to include the whole state if conditions warrant.
The potential for light icing continues in a layer between 150/FL250 as a band of mid and upper level moisture lingers across the state. This should be mostly focused over the western islands.
Marine
Strong high pressure northeast of the state will generate strong to near-gale force trade winds across Hawaiian waters through the upcoming weekend. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters due to a combination of winds and rough seas through at least Friday. The SCA will likely be extended through the weekend as strong trades winds persist. Surface troughing and an upper low west of the state will continue to generate showers with locally heavy rainfall into Thursday.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough through the week due to persistent strong trade winds over and upstream of the Hawaiian Islands. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) is now in effect for east facing shores, through Thursday afternoon. The HSA will likely be extended in time as east facing shore surf will likely hold at or near low-end advisory levels through the weekend.
A series of small, medium to long-period northwest (310-330 degrees) swells will move through local waters through the weekend. Expect surf heights along north and west facing shores to remain well below the seasonal average through Sunday. South shore surf will also remain small through the weekend. A small, long-period south swell (170 degrees) could provide a small bump up in south shore surf for Sunday into early next week.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kauai East, East Honolulu, Koolau Windward, Molokai Windward, Molokai Southeast, Windward Haleakala, Kipahulu, Big Island Southeast, Big Island East, Big Island North.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for all Hawaiian waters,
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