Hilo

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 70 at 4000 feet. Light winds.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 80 to 86 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Waimea

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 64 to 83. Light winds.

Kohala

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 82. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to 51 to 60 near 3000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 64 to 83. Light winds.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Light winds.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. Light winds becoming southeast around 10 mph in the afternoon.

Puna

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 71 at 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 60 to 68 near the shore to around 55 at 4000 feet. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 78 to 83 near the shore to 63 to 70 at 4000 feet. Light winds.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 78 to 84 near the shore to 65 to 70 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 49 to 54 above 4000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph.

Friday: Mostly sunny. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to around 68 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Light winds will persist into next week with limited rain expected over western slopes. Light to moderate trade winds should begin to return by late next week as the subtropical ridge shifts back north of the islands.

Discussion

Weak ridging remains south of the main Hawaiian Islands, keeping our pressure gradient slack and our winds light southwesterlies this morning. Overnight soundings continue to show a dry and stable airmass, with less than 1.3 inches of PW and positive lifted index values. A strong inversion persists near 4500 feet, capping vertical cloud development. Satellite loop shows broken to overcast stable low clouds moving across western portions of Kauai. However, the rest of the state appears to have scattered low clouds to clear skies. Radar shows isolated light showers within scant cloud cover over coastal waters around the smaller islands.
Models show southwesterly flow will keep dry and stable air across the area through the week. Expect limited shower coverage over western slopes, with further drying and increased stability to follow. Benign weather will prevail into next week as flow remains westerly over the western end of the state. Flow will be light enough to allow development of land/sea breezes and modest interior afternoon cloud build-ups. Weak and rapidly decaying fronts will occasionally approach Kauai, falling apart in an environment hostile to rainfall. By next Wednesday, the subtropical ridge should drift just far enough north of the islands to allow light trade winds to reach the state.

Aviation

Light winds will give way to increasing southwesterly winds today as a front approaches from the northwest, although sea breezes may still develop in the more sheltered areas. VFR conditions are expected to prevail statewide.
No AIRMETS are in effect. Moderate to perhaps severe upper level turbulence in the layer between FL250 and FL350 will spread from northwest to southeast down the island chain later today. AIRMET Tango will likely be required with the 22/1600Z AIRMET package.

Marine

A weak high pressure ridge will settle in over the Hawaii region with two cold fronts passing by north of the state into the weekend. This pressure pattern will produce light to moderate breezes with shifting wind directions each day into early next week. The declining NW swell will maintain a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for high seas for most Kauai waters into the afternoon hours. The SCA was dropped this for all other Hawaiian waters and channels this morning as swell heights fall below SCA thresholds.
The current declining northwest (320 degrees) swell pushing through the islands continues to produce High Surf Advisory level surf heights today along north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, along north facing shores of Maui. This swell will likely decline below HSA thresholds by late this afternoon to evening. Meanwhile, a fresh overlapping northwest (310 degrees) swell will slowly build into the Hawaii region today, surf heights from this swell peak at HSA levels from Friday through Saturday. HSA level surf heights should continue through Sunday for north and west facing shores as yet another similar northwest swell arrives this weekend. A downward trend in surf heights along north and west facing shores will develop by early next week as this swell energy slowly declines.
Smaller surf heights remain in the forecast this week for south and east facing shores.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau, Kauai Leeward, Waianae Coast, Oahu North Shore, Olomana, Maui Windward West, Kauai North, Molokai Windward, Molokai North, Molokai West, Maui Central Valley North, Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Northwest Waters, Kauai Windward Waters, Kauai Leeward Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov