Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to 53 to 59 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 83 to 88 near the shore to 68 to 75 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waimea

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 57 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 75 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Isolated showers. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Lows around 69 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. Scattered showers. Lows around 67 near the shore to around 53 at 4000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Saturday: Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 70 to 76 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 78 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 68 to 73 near the shore to 53 to 60 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Saturday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to 68 to 78 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Trade winds will be at gentle to locally moderate strength through the weekend, then briefly pick up to moderate strength again Monday and Tuesday. The stable trade winds will focus showers over windward areas, and leeward Big Island slopes will continue to experience afternoon clouds and scattered showers. Sea breezes will overpower the weak trade winds over leeward areas from Maui to Kauai, leading to afternoon clouds, though showers will be sparse.

Discussion

A stable, gentle to moderate trade wind flow will continue through the weekend. A surface ridge will meander roughly 250 to 375 miles north of Kauai, which will keep winds weak enough for a hybrid trade wind / land and sea breeze pattern to prevail. Modest showers will continue to be focused on windward slopes, and rainfall will be dependent on shallow pockets of moisture moving within the trade wind flow. One such area is hung up on the Big Island this morning and should clear by midday, and another may affect the Big Island tomorrow. Leeward Big Island slopes will experience mostly afternoon clouds and showers, and leeward terrain from Maui to Kauai will see a greater amount of afternoon clouds, though rainfall will be scant due to a strong ridge aloft maintaining stable conditions.
Expect a brief increase in trade winds Monday and Tuesday, followed by another decline midweek. Stable conditions will hold.

Aviation

Surface high pressure north of the islands will maintain light to locally moderate trade winds today. Low clouds and showers carried by the low-level trade wind flow will continue to primarily move into the windward sides of the islands. This may produce periods of MVFR conditions along some windward facing slopes, especially the windward Big Island. Otherwise, VFR conditions will likely prevail across most leeward sections this morning.
The relatively weak background trade flow may allow a pattern of alternating local afternoon see breezes and nighttime land breezes to develop over leeward sections of the state. The sea breezes could produce some clouds and isolated showers with brief periods of MVFR conditions over leeward locations this afternoon, followed by clearing skies this evening
No AIRMETS are currently in effect. We will continue to monitor observations in case AIRMET Sierra may be needed later this morning for mountain obscuration over some windward sections of the state.

Marine

A ridge north of the islands is gradually moving south. As it does, trade winds will weaken into the light to moderate range, likely persisting into early next week. Trade winds will increase thereafter as the ridge moves back north. Aside from localized diurnal changes in wind speeds, conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels in all zones through the weekend.
The long-period south swell will gradually subside over the next day or so, but modest reinforcements from the southern hemisphere will maintain surf heights near the seasonal average along south facing shores into early next week. A couple of small swells from the northwest through the weekend will provide a slight bump to surf heights along north facing shores. Weak trade winds near and upstream of the islands will deliver small short-period wind waves to east facing shores through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov