Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to 47 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 83 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 65 to 85. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 65 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 70 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers in the evening, then frequent showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to 64 to 69 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 71 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 25 mph.

Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 73 near the shore to 48 to 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Highs 78 to 86 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Breezy trades will persist over the next couple days then decrease to moderate speeds Wednesday into Thursday, then strengthen again this weekend. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mountain areas, with a few showers spreading to leeward areas.

Discussion

High pressure far north of the islands will drive breezy trade winds over the next couple of days. Conditions will remain stable aloft and keep any orographic showers on the light side. 12Z soundings from early this morning showed a strong inversion between 6 and 7 kft with near normal precipitable waters values around 1.3 to 1.4 inches.
Infrared satellite shows scattered to numerous stratocumuls clouds moving east to west across the island chain this morning. Radar shows little overall precipitation with nearly all of it confined to windward and southeast Big Island. Cloud cover will maintain through the morning with breaks increasing by midday and then fill in again tonight. Clouds and showers will focus over windward slopes and mostly occur during the nighttime and early morning hours, with the diurnal minimum occurring midday. Leeward areas will stay mostly dry, with an occasional shower passing over the mountain ridges.
A weak surface trough will pass north of the state Wednesday and Thursday and weaken trade winds down to moderate speeds. A weak shortwave will move across the islands around the same time and bring some deeper layered clouds and enhancement to the trade wind showers. Both windward and leeward areas should see a slight boost to shower coverage during the second half of the week. Wind speeds will strengthen back to breezy levels next weekend.

Aviation

Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue–the result of a strong ridge of high pressure far north of the Islands. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 8000 feet over and downwind of the terrain for all islands, and will likely remain in place through at least Monday evening.
Clouds and showers will favor mainly east and northeast facing slopes and coasts during the late night and early morning hours. Leeward sea breezes will focus shower activity over island interiors during the afternoon and early evening hours. The air mass below 07 kft remains stable: any precipitation in the lower elevations should be light and intermittent. The air mass above the inversion, however, is moderately unstable. Expect isolated moderate showers in towering cumulus over Big Island and Maui summits in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Marine

Fresh to strong trade winds will continue through Tuesday as high pressure slides eastward well to the north of the island chain. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is now in effect for the typically windy waters around the Big Island and Maui through 6 PM Tuesday. The ridge north of the islands will weaken Wednesday and Thursday, causing a slight easing of the trades. The ridge will then strengthen Friday allowing the trades to trend stronger, with fresh to strong trades expected to fill back in for the weekend.
The current north-northwest will steadily lower today through Tuesday. Surf will then remain small along north facing shores Wednesday through Friday, with a small northwest swell bringing a slight boost over the weekend.
The current south swell will hold at elevated levels today, then gradually lower Tuesday and Wednesday. Surf will hold near seasonal levels Thursday through Saturday, with another south swell giving surf a boost above normal levels on Sunday.
Rough trade wind swell will maintain east shore surf near seasonal average through Tuesday. East shore surf will follow trade wind trends, dropping slightly Wednesday and Thursday, then rebuilding Friday through the weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov