Hilo

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Kona

Today: Partly sunny. Isolated showers early in the morning. Scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs around 84 near the shore to around 68 near 5000 feet. South winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows around 71 near the shore to 48 to 55 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 86 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Waimea

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kohala

Today: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 85. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows around 63 near the shore to 54 to 61 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Highs 64 to 84. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Partly sunny. Breezy. Slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 51 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 82 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 81 near the shore to around 65 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.

Tonight: Cloudy. Showers likely in the evening, then occasional showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 70 near the shore to 53 to 58 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Monday: Cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 82 near the shore to around 66 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with slight chance of thunderstorms and isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 87 near the shore to 66 to 72 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph shifting to the north in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 49 to 55 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Monday: Sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Highs 79 to 86 near the shore to 65 to 71 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest in the afternoon.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will continue through much of the week, with clouds and showers favoring windward and mauka locations each day as pockets of moisture move through. Outside of a few afternoon showers over the Kona slopes, expect the dry conditions to continue for our leeward areas. A transition to a wet pattern is possible for portions of the state next weekend as an upper disturbance moves into the area.

Discussion

Short-term guidance remains in good agreement through much of the week and shows moderate to breezy easterly trades holding. A weakness in the ridge forming due to a front northwest of the region could translate to a brief period with slightly weaker trades for the western end of the state tonight through Monday. Clouds and showers will focus over windward and mountain locations, with the best chances being overnight through the early morning hours as pockets of moisture move through. Upper trough in place will linger today, then move away from the area Monday. Although confidence remains low due plenty of mid-level dry air, an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out through the afternoon hours today for the Big Island slopes. Rising upper heights and increasing stability are expected early in the week, which will lower the chances for heavy showers and limit accumulations. Expect the dry conditions to prevail for leeward areas.
For the extended period (next weekend), guidance continues to advertise a wet pattern evolving over the western end of the state as an upper low drops south near Kauai. Expect changes in this portion of the forecast over the coming days as confidence begins to increase.

Aviation

High pressure anchored north of the state will continue breezy easterly trades again today, which will focus a bulk of the heaviest showers across windward locations through this evening. This pattern will occasionally generate periods of MVFR cigs and vsby across some windward areas again today. A weak upper level feature drifting across the region will increase moisture and instability, enhancing thunderstorm chances over the Big Island this afternoon.
AIRMET Tango for low-level turbulence continues across the islands due to locally gusty easterly trade winds. AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for north thru east sections for portions of this islands for tempo mountain obscuration due to clouds and showers.

Marine

Moderate to locally strong trades will continue through late this week, with some slight easing possible tonight through Monday night as a front stalls out several hundred miles northwest of the island chain. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typically windy waters around Maui and the Big Island has been extended through 6 PM this evening. The SCA may need to be extended into the evening hours tonight, but should drop below advisory thresholds by midnight.
Very small surf will remain in place along north facing shores today, with a small west-northwest swell providing a minimal boost Monday and Tuesday. Surf will lower to very small levels again Wednesday, with a series of small northwest swells providing another minimal boost to north shore surf Thursday through next weekend.
Fresh to strong trades over and upstream of the islands will keep elevated surf in place along east facing shores through Tuesday. East shore surf will then trend downward slightly from mid week into the weekend.
Several overlapping south swells will keep south shore surf elevated in the 3 to 6 foot range through Tuesday. South shore surf will decrease to small levels Wednesday through Friday, before trending back up next weekend.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov