Photo Credit: James Grenz

Hilo

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Today: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Lows 67 to 72 near the shore to 46 to 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 85 near the shore to around 67 near 5000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph shifting to the west in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 84. East winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows around 63 near the shore to 52 to 60 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph decreasing to up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Sunday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 65 to 84. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 70 near the shore to around 50 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 66 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Today: Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 62 to 69 near the shore to 52 to 57 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Sunday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 77 to 82 near the shore to 65 to 70 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph shifting to the east in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Today: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tonight: Mostly clear. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 47 to 54 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Sunday: Sunny and breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 79 to 85 near the shore to 64 to 70 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph shifting to the northeast in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Pleasant conditions are anticipated into early next week, with breezy easterly trade winds and temperatures running slightly above normal. The best chance for showers will be through the late night and early morning hours over windward and mauka locations, leaving most leeward locations dry. Trade winds will trend down Tuesday through midweek, and some moisture moving in from the southeast could boost rainfall chances for some locations.

Discussion

Guidance remains in good agreement and depicts the breezy easterly trades holding through Monday, then easing Tuesday through midweek as a front passes to the north. Plenty of dry air combined with rising upper heights will limit rainfall chances and keep the temperatures hovering slightly above average for this time of year. Any showers that do form will be brief and favor windward and mauka locations overnight through the early morning hours and over the Kona slopes through the afternoon periods.
As the trades weaken Tuesday through midweek, guidance shows a decent-sized area of enhanced low-level moisture moving in from the southeast. Lowering upper heights due to an approaching shortwave trough from the northwest along with this moisture support a slight increase in rainfall chances. A drying trend along with light to moderate trade winds returning is shown Thursday through Friday.

Aviation

Locally breezy easterly trade winds will continue across the island chain though the weekend. Although dry air aloft will limit showers and clouds, any showers that develop will favor the overnight through early morning hours and focus mainly along north through east-facing sections of the islands. Elsewhere, conditions will remain mostly dry. VFR flight conditions will prevail state-wide, with only isolated MVFR ceilings for brief periods within windward showers.
There are currently no AIRMETS in effect. However, low level mechanical turbulence downwind of the mountains of the islands may be possible later today, especially across the eastern half of the state.

Marine

A surface ridge will persist north of the state, maintaining moderate to locally breezy trades through the weekend. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island has now been extended through Sunday afternoon as a result. The ridge will weaken as two fronts approach the area from the northwest beginning Sunday evening through the middle of next week. Thus, trades will ease below SCA thresholds Sunday night and beyond.
A long-period west-northwest swell continues to spread across the area with near seasonal average surf along most north and west facing shores. However, the swell appears to have already peaked locally. It will continue to gradually lower through early Sunday. The next northwest swell is expected by later Sunday, and peak near, or just above, the High Surf Advisory threshold along most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands Monday. This swell will then slowly subside through the middle of next week.
The current small, long-period south swell will slowly fade through the weekend. Typically small background south swells will return to south facing shores late in the weekend and into the first half of next week. Elsewhere, modest, choppy surf will persist along east facing shores through early next week.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov