Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 71 to 77 near the shore to 56 to 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows 58 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 55 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78 near the shore to 57 to 63 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Kona
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 81 near the shore to around 63 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the evening, then partly cloudy with isolated showers after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to 44 to 52 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Friday: Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 80 near the shore to around 62 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Waimea
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 57 to 77. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 57 to 78. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Kohala
Today: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 57 to 77. East winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Breezy. Scattered showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Lows 58 to 64 near the shore to 50 to 59 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Friday: Breezy. Partly sunny with scattered showers. Highs 57 to 78. East winds 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.
South Big Island
Today: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph shifting to the east up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 40 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 68 near the shore to around 49 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Breezy. Sunny in the morning, then mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 78 near the shore to around 61 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 20 mph shifting to the east up to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Puna
ARTICLE CONTINUES BELOW AD
Today: Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs 71 to 77 near the shore to 56 to 62 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph decreasing to up to 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Tonight: Cloudy with occasional showers. Lows 58 to 67 near the shore to 50 to 55 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.
Friday: Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 71 to 78 near the shore to 57 to 63 at 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.
Waikoloa
Today: Mostly sunny in the morning then becoming partly sunny. Breezy. Scattered showers. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to 61 to 66 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph shifting to the northeast 10 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 50 percent.
Tonight: Breezy. Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 71 near the shore to 45 to 52 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Friday: Breezy. Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 76 to 83 near the shore to 61 to 66 above 4000 feet. Northeast winds 10 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.
Detailed Forecast
Synopsis
Breezy trade winds will weaken somewhat by Christmas Day, then strengthen again from Sunday into next week. The trade winds will deliver passing low clouds and a few brief showers to windward areas, occasionally spreading leeward. A kona low developing well west of the islands this weekend may bring the potential for increased showers from Sunday into next week, and may turn winds to the southeast for a day or two.
Discussion
Strong high pressure far N of the islands will change little through the period, supporting locally breezy trade winds, but some weakening of the local pressure gradient on Christmas Day is expected to lead to a modest decrease in trade wind speeds. A kona low developing about 500-700 miles NW of the islands over the weekend will likely lead to a tightening of the gradient from Sunday into next week, with E to SE winds becoming locally strong in response. The island atmosphere will remain relatively unstable through the weekend as a mid-level trough lingers N of the islands, but with limited low-level moisture arriving on the trades, only brief windward showers are anticipated through Saturday, with some afternoon showers over the Kona slopes. Increased low-level convergence E of the kona low may bring an increase in shower coverage to Kauai on Sunday, potentially spreading to the other islands through the middle part of next week. With E to SE winds blowing, any increased rainfall will be most likely to affect windward areas.
Aviation
Moderate to breezy trade winds continue today as a high pressure system remains locked in place far north of the Hawaii region. An upper level disturbance will keep periods of showers in the forecast through the rest of the week. MVFR conditions are possible over north through east sections of the eastern islands, mainly in the early morning hours. Wind speeds show decreasing trends and AIRMET Tango for moderate low level turbulence was cancelled this morning.
AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect over Maui and the Big Island this morning. These low cloud ceilings will likely continue into the morning hours.
Marine
A broad 1040 mb surface high located far north of the islands will maintain fresh to strong trade winds through today where a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains posted for all Hawaiian waters. With the slightly lighter trades, the SCA is likely to be extended into Friday, but the marine zones affected will be scaled down to the typically windy areas of Maui County and waters south of the Big Island. Between Sunday and Monday, the trade winds will be shifting to the east and southeast while strengthening to moderate to strong area-wide, leading to a possible expansion of the SCA covering most Hawaiian waters.
The combination of an elevated north-northeast swell and locally generated trade wind swell has resulted in rough seas and elevated surf. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for the east facing shores through late this afternoon, with the possibility of an extension through tonight. The latest PacIOOS buoy reports from Hilo and Hanalei indicate that a declining trend has begun, down a foot each in both the swell and combined seas, and period shorter at 11 to 12 seconds. Both swells are expected to lower a little more then hold at moderate levels into early next week. This moderate swell translate to moderate surf along north and east facing shores. There could be a slight rise in the surf along the east facing shores on Monday, due to the boost in the east to southeast winds. This boost may bring surf to near advisory level once again along the east facing shores. Between Monday and Thursday, the west facing shores can expect some small to moderate surf from a series of west- northwest pulses.
Instability from an upper level trough will maintain thunderstorms across the southern offshore waters through tonight. After a lull on Saturday, the threat of thunderstorms returns to the western offshore and near-shore waters of Kauai County Sunday through Monday.
HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for East facing shores of Kauai Oahu Molokai Maui and the Big Island.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for all Hawaiian waters.
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