UPDATE: Hawai‘i May Be Impacted by Future Erick

8 PM HST: NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu

Tropical Storm Erick is centered about 1,975 miles ESE of Hilo.

5 PM HST: Tropical Storm Erick Advisory Number 3

ERICK HEADING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER OPEN WATERS

At 5 p.m., the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located near latitude 11.9°N, longitude 126.8°W, about 1,955 miles ESE of Hilo.

Erick is moving toward the west near 17 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a slight decrease in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts.

Gradual strengthening is expected, and Eric is forecast to become a hurricane by Monday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center.

Environmental conditions are favorable for Erick to intensify over the next 3 to 4 days, with the only current inhibiting factor is that the system lacks a well-defined inner core.

2 PM HST: NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Erick, centered about 2,000 miles ESE of Hilo. Erick is expected to move into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility on Tuesday.

11 AM HST: Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory 2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD

FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT

At 11 a.m., the center of Tropical Depression Six-E was located near latitude 11.6°N, longitude 125.3° W.

The depression has not changed in organization since earlier this morning.

The depression is moving toward the west near 18 mph.

A W-to-WNW motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph with higher gusts.

Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The system could strengthen to a hurricane by Tuesday.

SUMMARY
LOCATION…11.6N 125.3W
ABOUT 1280 MI…2060 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2055 MI…3305 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH…30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1006 MB…29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

5 AM HST, Saturday, July 27, 2019: NWS National Hurricane Center Miami

On Saturday morning, Tropical Depression 6-E formed in the Eastern Pacific, with maximum winds of 35 mph.

The center of the newly formed tropical depression was located near latitude 11.3°N, longitude 123.8°.

The depression is moving toward the W near 18 mph and is now located 2,160 miles E of Hilo.

It is still too early to predict whether Erick will have direct impacts on Hawai‘i. But the National Hurricane Center’s forecast through Thursday places the center of  Erick, if he forms, more than 400 miles away from Hawai‘i.

The storm is expected to gradually turn to the WNW and a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next two to three days.

Assuming the track stays similar, this would at least mean an increase in waves and choppier waters surrounding the Big Island.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts.

The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today.

The storm is expected to strengthen in the days ahead. There is a 90% chance that the storm will eventually grow to a hurricane by Wednesday, July 31, as it moves closer to the Hawaiian Islands.

The storm is expected to be named Erick, once winds peak over 39 mph, which is expected Saturday afternoon.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

LOCATION: 11.3°N 123.8°W
ABOUT 1,215 MILES SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2,160 MILES E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 MB or 29.71 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 11.3N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  28/0000Z 11.3N 126.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  28/1200Z 11.9N 128.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  29/0000Z 12.5N 131.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  29/1200Z 13.2N 133.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
72H  30/1200Z 14.5N 139.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
96H  31/1200Z 15.5N 144.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  01/1200Z 16.5N 149.0W   65 KT  75 MPH