Hilo

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then mostly clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows 72 to 77 near the shore to around 54 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with scattered showers in the afternoon. Haze through the day. Highs 85 to 90 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 71 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 61 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Kohala

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 66 to 74 near the shore to 59 to 66 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Breezy. Mostly sunny with isolated showers. Highs around 83 near the shore to 71 to 81 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Breezy. Partly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 74 near the shore to 61 to 67 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

South Big Island

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers early in the evening, then clear after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 57 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday: Sunny and breezy. Haze through the day. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 88 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 78 near the shore to around 59 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Puna

Rest Of Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 67 to 73 near the shore to around 58 at 4000 feet. West winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Thursday: Partly sunny. Numerous showers in the morning, then scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 81 to 87 near the shore to around 69 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70 percent.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 68 to 74 near the shore to around 61 at 4000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Rest Of Tonight: Partly cloudy early in the evening then becoming clear. Haze through the night. Lows around 76 near the shore to 53 to 58 above 4000 feet. East winds up to 10 mph.

Thursday: Sunny. Haze through the day. Scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs 86 to 91 near the shore to 67 to 74 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy. Haze. Lows around 77 near the shore to around 57 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

High pressure far northeast of the state will return locally breezy trades through the weekend. Winds will ease a bit early next week. Fairly typical summertime weather is expected the next several days, with a few showers favoring windward and mauka areas during the night and morning hours.

Update

Forecast is on track with gradually strengthening trade winds during the next couple of days. Made a small tweak to the evening cloud cover over the Kona slopes of Big Island. The Coastal Flood Statement for peak monthly tides has been cancelled.

Prev discussion

Issued at 350 PM HST Wed Jul 15 2026 Our weather continues to be dominated by a large, sprawling, persistent 1035 mb surface high centered over the far NE Pacific. This high will probably continue to be there for the next 10 days. This leaves the islands in a gentle to locally breezy trade wind pattern, where weak troughs and areas of convergence can temporarily veer local background flow to the ESE like we see today. A few small showers have popped up on the northwestern sides of the islands today, but overall any convection has greatly underperformed the CAMs owing to the subsidence and very warm air aloft seen in the mid- levels in the 00z soundings.
The models agree on fairly normal summertime weather continuing through the next week or so, with hard-to-time areas of shallow moisture convergence riding in on the trades. These will not get any help from the mid-levels, where very warm temperatures and ridging will keep strong subsidence in place above the trade wind inversion. We will still see some trade wind showers from time to time, favoring overnights and early mornings windward. After today, the pressure gradient strengthens a bit more for a minor peak in trade winds about Saturday, before easing up just a bit.
Kilauea volcano episode 51 is ongoing, but we have received only very localized reports of tephra in the closed area of the park so far. Continuing to ride with a Special Weather Statement unless we get some evidence of more widespread problems. Model guidance shows low level winds 10000 feet and below would likely push any ash cloud toward the WSW, while winds at about 15000 feet and higher would carry any ash able to reach that height toward the N or NNE.

Aviation

Moderate trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA will impact windward and mauka locations. MVFR conds possible in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.
No AIRMETs in effect.

Marine

Issued at 350 PM HST Wed Jul 15 2026 High pressure far north of the islands and very broad weak troughing to the west will continue to lead to a slightly veered and lighter trade wind flow across the coastal waters through tonight. Then the pressure gradient between the high to the north sagging south and a couple of lows developing to our south and southwest will strengthen across the area, causing an uptick in trade wind speeds Thursday night into the weekend. As the trades gradually strengthen to fresh to strong levels, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the typical windier channels and waters around Maui and the Big Island.
A small, long-period west-northwest (280 to 290 degrees) swell from former Super Typhoon Bavi has arrived, peaking through Thursday before gradually subsiding into the weekend. This swell is overlapping for some west-facing shores with a gradually fading small, medium-period southwest (210 to 220 degrees) Tasman swell that is currently bringing near-average surf to south-facing shores. A series of small, long- to medium-period south-southwest (190-200 degrees) swells will arrive starting Thursday night into the weekend, keeping surf slightly below summer average. Then an overlapping moderate, long-period south swell (180 degrees) will arrive early next week, bringing the potential for above-average (though sub-advisory) surf.
As mentioned previously, the west-northwest swell from former Super Typhoon Bavi has arrived and is bringing a slight uptick in surf along exposed north-facing shores this afternoon. This surf will hold into Thursday before gradually fading and returning north shores to flat to tiny status for the weekend.
Surf along east-facing shores will be slightly below seasonal averages through Thursday with lighter trade winds. Surf may then climb back up a notch as trades strengthen through the weekend. Then early to midweek next week, there's potential for a small, long- to medium-period swell to arrive, generated from Tropical Storm Elida.
The Coastal Flood Statement for peak monthly tides has been cancelled.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

None.

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Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov