Hilo

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 60 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Kona

Tonight: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers in the evening, then isolated showers after midnight. Haze through the night. Lows around 74 near the shore to 51 to 56 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 30 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny with isolated showers in the morning, then mostly cloudy with scattered showers in the afternoon. Highs around 86 near the shore to around 70 near 5000 feet. Northwest winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 40 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with isolated showers in the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Lows around 74 near the shore to around 53 near 5000 feet. Light winds. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Waimea

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 57 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Kohala

Tonight: Breezy. Mostly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 56 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds up to 20 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Breezy. Partly sunny with isolated showers. Highs 65 to 86. East winds up to 20 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated showers. Lows 65 to 73 near the shore to 57 to 64 near 3000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

South Big Island

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Breezy. Isolated showers in the evening. Haze through the night. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. Northeast winds up to 20 mph becoming 10 to 15 mph after midnight. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny. Breezy. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs around 87 near the shore to around 69 near 5000 feet. East winds up to 25 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 75 near the shore to around 56 near 5000 feet. East winds 10 to 15 mph.

Puna

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 65 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 60 at 4000 feet. North winds up to 10 mph shifting to the northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday: Partly sunny. Scattered showers in the morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 80 to 87 near the shore to 67 to 72 at 4000 feet. East winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening, then scattered showers after midnight. Lows 66 to 72 near the shore to 53 to 59 at 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 10 mph. Chance of rain 50 percent.

Waikoloa

Tonight: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers in the evening. Lows around 76 near the shore to 53 to 58 above 4000 feet. Southeast winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny in the morning, then partly sunny with isolated showers in the afternoon. Highs 85 to 91 near the shore to 67 to 76 above 4000 feet. North winds up to 15 mph. Chance of rain 20 percent.

Tuesday Night: Partly cloudy. Lows around 76 near the shore to around 55 above 4000 feet. Light winds.

Detailed Forecast

Synopsis

Moderate to locally breezy trade wind will prevail through much of the week as periods of thin high clouds continue to pass overhead. On most days, showers will favor windward areas, and aside from scattered afternoon showers on the South Kona slopes of the Big Island, leeward areas will be mostly dry. On Wednesday, winds will decline and shift more easterly, leading to more widespread leeward sea breezes and bringing higher chances for interior and leeward showers on mainly Kauai.

Discussion

A moderate to locally breezy and rather stable trade wind flow is in place. Broad surface high pressure far north of the state is driving the trades. A ridge aloft centered just south of the state is gradually building overhead, bringing increasingly stable conditions, and an upper-level trough sitting roughly 900 miles to the northwest of the islands is sending thin high clouds over the area. Under these locally breezy and stable conditions, windward rainfall decreased considerably, though Kauai remained slightly wetter until midday, and afternoon soundings showed a low-level returning at just over 6,000 feet.
Little change is expected through Tuesday. Locally breezy and rather stable trade winds will focus modest showers over windward areas, and with the exception of scattered afternoon showers over the South Kona slopes, leeward areas should be mostly dry. The pattern aloft will remain relatively unchanged, and patches of high clouds will continue to stream overhead.
Subtle changes are in store for Wednesday. The upper-level trough and its associated surface trough to the northwest of the state will strengthen, and a shortwave aloft will pass near Kauai. Winds across the western half of the island chain will veer easterly or possibly even out of the east-southeast as the inversion erodes. As a result, afternoon sea breezes could become more extensive and drive higher chances for leeward showers. Since there does not appear to be an influx of increased moisture, heavy showers appear unlikely at this time.
A return to stable summertime trade wind conditions is due on Thursday as the surface and upper-level trough to the northwest weaken. Expect moderate easterly trade winds to bring typical showers to windward areas.

Aviation

Moderate to locally breezy trades will persist over the next couple of days with clouds and showers favoring windward and mountain areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours. Brief periods of MVFR conditions will be possible as these clouds and showers roll in. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.
No AIRMETs are currently in effect. If shower coverage becomes widespread enough overnight, AIRMET Sierra for tempo mountain obscuration may be needed for some windward areas.

Marine

Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds will continue through Thursday as surface high pressure remains centered far north of the Hawaiian Islands. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the waters around Maui County and the windier waters around the Big Island. Lighter winds are then expected Thursday night into the weekend as the high drifts northwest and a new high develops northeast of the region.
Several pulses of southerly and southwesterly swells will continue to boost surf heights along south and some west facing shores this week. Surf along east facing shores will remain small and choppy. Surf along north facing shores will remain nearly flat through the forecast period.
Peak monthly high tides associated with the lunar cycle, combined with water levels that are running higher than predicted may lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is expected around the daily peak tide each afternoon through Thursday. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued for Maui County and the Big Island where observed water levels are currently around 0.25 to 0.50 feet above the forecasted tides.

Fire weather

Locally breezy, dry, and stable conditions returned this afternoon, and with winds blowing stronger than expected within a slot of dry air passing over the islands, weather observations at the Honolulu International Airport (HNL) have been hovering right around critical levels. Winds at other leeward sites are not as strong, and we will hold off on any headlines at this time. KBDI at HNL has exceeded 600 and will remain elevated above that threshold until significant rain occurs, which is unlikely for weeks or possibly months as the peak of the dry season is near. Expect similarly dry and stable conditions on Tuesday, with near critical winds and relative humidity. East to east southeast winds on Wednesday will likely be lighter over sheltered leeward areas.

HFO Watches/Warnings/Advisories

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Kaiwi Channel, Maui County Windward Waters, Maui County Leeward Waters, Maalaea Bay, Pailolo Channel, Alenuihaha Channel, Big Island Leeward Waters, Big Island Southeast Waters.

Data Courtesy of NOAA.gov